Observed and forecast tracks: southern hemisphere 2019-20

Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from [email protected]. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.

South-West Indian (west of 90°E)
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

Ambali (03S)

04-08 December 930 mb, 135/120 knots

Track forecast errors were mostly above the recent running mean.

Belna (02S)

04-11 December 964 mb, 100/85 knots

Track forecast errors were mostly below the recent running mean, particularly at longer lead times.

Calvinia (05S)

29 December-01 January 973 mb, 70/65 knots

Track forecast errors were low and skill scores high for this storm.

09S

22-23 January 999 mb, 35/30 knots

09S was short lived and few forecasts were verified.

Diane (10S)

24-26 January 980 mb, 45/50 knots

Track forecast errors were near the recent mean error for this basin.

Esami (11S)

24-26 January 993 mb, 45/45 knots

There was a slight slow bias in forecasts.

Francisco (13S)

04-15 February 994 mb, 45/40 knots

Francisco was short-lived as a tropical storm, although persisted a long time as a depression before reforming close to the coast of Madagascar. Track forecast errors were below the recent mean value.

Gabekile (16S)

15-19 February 980 mb, 75/70 knots

Track forecast errors for this storm were above the recent mean value.

Herold (22S)

13-19 March 957 mb, 100/95 knots

Apart from the first forecast which had a southwards bias, track forecast errors were low and skill scores high for this storm.

Irondro (24S)

02-06 April 945 mb, 95/95 knots

Track forecast errors were near to or below the recent mean value.

Jeruto (26S)

14-16 April 999 mb, 40/35 knots

Track forecasts were a little fast.

Tropical cyclone names

South-west Indian observed tracks in 2019-20

Australian (90-160°E) - including Indonesia and PNG
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

Blake (06S)

05-08 January 989 mb, 50/40 knots

Track forecast errors were low and the landfall well predicted.

Claudia (07S)

11-15 January 969 mb, 85/75 knots

Track forecast errors were mostly below the recent mean for this basin.

Damien (14S)

06-09 February 955 mb, 95/80 knots

Track forecast errors were below the recent mean value and the turn towards land was predicted well in most forecasts.

Esther (19P)

23 February-01 March 990 mb, 50/40 knots

Since Esther was only a tropical storm for a short while, few forecasts were verified. However, the model did well in predicting the remnant would remain intact and circulate around the interior of Australia for some considerable time after landfall.

Ferdinand (20S)

23 February-01 March 960 mb, 95/85 knots

Track forecast errors were low for Ferdinand.

21S

11-12 March 1003 mb, 35/30 knots

21S was very briefly designated as a storm by JTWC. No forecasts were verified.

Gretel (23P)

14-16 March 980 mb, 55/55 knots

There was a slow bias in some forecasts resulting in errors above the recent mean values.

Harold (25P)

02-10 April 924 mb, 145/120 knots

Track forecasts were exceptionally good with very low errors and high skill scores.

Mangga (27S)

21-23 May 995 mb, 40/35 knots

Track forecasts were a little above the recent running mean for this storm.

Tropical Cyclone Names

Fiji (east of 160°E)
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Rita (01P) 24-26 November 977 mb, 65/65 knots

Track forecast errors were slightly above last season's average.

Sarai (04P)

26 December-01 January 972 mb, 70/60 knots

Track forecast errors were low for this storm.

Tino (08P)

16-19 January 970 mb, 70/65 knots

Track forecast errors were low at short lead times, but there was a slow bias at longer lead times.

12P

25-26 January 1000 mb, 35/30 knots

This was a short-lived storm.

Uesi (15P)

09-13 February 970 mb, 75/70 knots

Due to a slow and left-of-track bias, forecasts had larger track forecast errors than the recent mean values.

Vicky (17P)

20-23 February 988 mb, 45/45 knots

Vicky was short-lived and just a few forecasts were verified.

Wasi (18P)

21-23 February 990 mb, 55/45 knots

Wasi was only briefly a tropical storm.

Tropical Cyclone Names

Western Australian observed tracks in 2019-20

Eastern Australian observed tracks in 2019-20

South Atlantic
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

Kurumi (01Q)

24-25 January 999 mb, -/35 knots

Kurumi was a short-lived subtropical storm with few forecasts verified.

Tropical cyclone names

Note on estimated wind speeds

1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over one minute (JTWC Hawaii)
10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (Southern Hemisphere RSMCs and TCWCs)

Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres.