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storm forecasts compared to reference forecast (frequency of occurrence over preceding 180 days) (RPSS: relative improvement of probability forecast over reference forecast in predicting category which observation fell into) • Point averages for day 1 lie above no-skill line, & most of days 2-4

breaks of sunshine. The high pressure has been slow-moving, remaining in place for the rest of the current week. This stability has resulted in misty and murky conditions, with temperatures creeping into the low teens for many areas. The reason for this stubborn high pressure lies high in the atmosphere

to about 700m through the day and overnight, expect a return to more severe winter conditions across the higher Lakeland summits, existing wet snow, lying water, remnants of old water ice and generally damp rock/ground will all transform above the freeze-line giving potentially challenging icy and slippery

Kingdom lies in the latitude of predominantly westerly winds where depressions and fronts move bands of cloud and rain eastwards or north-eastwards across the North Atlantic. Between the depressions there are often small mobile anticyclones bringing welcome fair weather. Climate of the British

. In total low-lying coastal areas received only around 50mm or less, however much of the high ground received 100 to 150mm, with some locations exceeding 150mm. The wettest areas were across the central Cumbrian fells, which received 200 to 300mm of rainfall and in a few locations 300 to 400mm. Upland

anomaly is then added to the HadISST dataset 1989-2002 climatology to give a prediction for September 2010 of 5.5 million square kilometres. Despite the known model deficiencies, it is encouraging that this estimate lies in the range of the June Outlook report projections. Figure 2: GloSea4 forecast

services and city infrastructure. Many of these communities, however, are in low-lying areas or next to rivers. This makes them extremely vulnerable to flooding, which can destroy homes and assets or even endanger life. Climate change means the threat is likely to increase, as some countries see

breaks of sunshine. The high pressure has been slow-moving, remaining in place for the rest of the current week. This stability has resulted in misty and murky conditions, with temperatures creeping into the low teens for many areas. The reason for this stubborn high pressure lies high in the atmosphere

, so it’s important for everyone to know their flood risk. “If there is flooding, we want to make sure people are doing all they can to keep themselves safe. We want to remind people to keep away from swollen riverbanks and do not to drive or walk through flood waters as you don’t know what lies

(Table 1). It should first be highlighted that the observed ACE index in a given year is, by forecast definition, expected to lie within the 70% prediction interval approximately 7 out of 10 times. Thus in some years the observed number will lie outside of this range. However, in 2013, the observed ACE