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change adds complexity, requiring a different approach. In the figure each cross represents a single location in the UK. It is evident that in the first decade after the forcing increase the precipitation over the UK actually shows a reduction for most locations in this example (the crosses lie below

be contacted with regard to FOIA and EIR. The ultimate decision whether to publish or disclose information provided to the Met Office lies with the Met Office. OFFICIAL 17 OFFICIAL Annex A – WISER Theory of Change OFFICIAL 18

) Wm -2 4 4 4 4 Radiation, net short wave (rss) Wm -2 4 4 4 4 Relative humidity (hurs) % 4 4 4 4 Sea level pressure (psl) hPa 4 4 4 4 Sea water level m 4 Snow: snowfall amount (prsn) mm 4 4 Snow: lying snow amount (snw) mm 4 4 Specific humidity (huss) 4 4 4 4 Temperature, maximum (tasmax) °C 4 4 4 4 4

results show poor reliability • January – June 2023 • Compares forecast probability to how often Cbs are observed. • These match for a perfectly reliable forecast. • The results would lie on the dashed line. www.metoffice.gov.uk © Crown Copyright 2023, Met Office To improve reliability and resolution

to be commercially sensitive, please also include on the Form the details of a named individual who may be contacted with regard to FOIA and EIR. The ultimate decision whether to publish or disclose information provided to the Met Office lies with the Met Office. OFFICIAL 17 OFFICIAL Annex A – WISER Theory of Change OFFICIAL 18

of 36.75000°E and latitude of 1.30000°S. The TAHMO AWS is located at a longitude of 36.76020°E and latitude of 1.3018389°S. The 3D-PAWS AWS is located at a longitude of 36.7601°E, latitude of 1.30172°S. All the three stations lie at an average altitude of 1790m above the mean sea level. The geographic

of 36.75000°E and latitude of 1.30000°S. The TAHMO AWS is located at a longitude of 36.76020°E and latitude of 1.3018389°S. The 3D-PAWS AWS is located at a longitude of 36.7601°E, latitude of 1.30172°S. All the three stations lie at an average altitude of 1790m above the mean sea level. The geographic

) Wm -2 4 4 4 4 Radiation, net short wave (rss) Wm -2 4 4 4 4 Relative humidity (hurs) % 4 4 4 4 Sea level pressure (psl) hPa 4 4 4 4 Sea water level m 4 Snow: snowfall amount (prsn) mm 4 4 Snow: lying snow amount (snw) mm 4 4 Specific humidity (huss) 4 4 4 4 Temperature, maximum (tasmax) °C 4 4 4 4 4

there were several snow events these were mostly fairly typical for the time of year when they fell. Snowfalls in mid- and late- January generally affected northern areas but lying snow was briefly recorded as far south as the Home Counties and parts of the south-west. Depths exceeding 5cm were mainly

with increasing return period over the southern UK (the observations typically lie within the 12-member ensemble spread, Figure 2). However, all models have biases compared to the real world, but they can still provide useful information. Over the northern regions, the CPM generally underestimates