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Winter to tighten its grip – February 2021

: “Into the weekend snow will continue across much of Scotland, and is likely to increasingly fall to low levels before beginning to move south into northern and eastern England. Strong winds “We are likely to see some very large accumulations across higher parts of Scotland especially, with strong winds leading

What is an ensemble forecast?

, very small errors in its initial state can lead to large errors in the forecast. This means that we can never create a perfect forecast system because we can never observe every detail of the atmosphere's initial state. Tiny errors in the initial state will be amplified, so there is always a limit

Positive impacts of ensemble forecasts

of the developing storm in different members of the ECMWF ensemble forecast. This indicated a very high confidence that the storm would track over northern Britain during the evening of 31 December. Further analysis also showed a high probability of very strong winds associated with this storm

Towyn Floods 26 February 1990

and east and were often of hail with some thunder in places too. Apart from the far north of Scotland it was a windy night everywhere and gales or severe gales were very widespread. During the day gales affected all areas and gusts in excess of 70 mph were very common. Northern England had some

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Amber warning issued for Scotland for strong winds from Storm Floris.

The National Severe Weather Warning for very strong winds in Scotland has been upgraded to Amber with effect from Monday 10.00 through to Monday 22.00. The Yellow warning covering the northern half of the UK remains in place from 06.00 Monday, until Monday 23.59 These warnings are as a result

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Warming up, with another heatwave on the way for some

some cloud and light rain or patchy drizzle at times. It will be breezy near some North Sea coasts. Whilst temperatures are expected to build day on day, becoming widely very warm or hot, they are unlikely to surpass those recorded at the start of the month. This heatwave is expected to be longer

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Climate change: AMOC likely to withstand future warming

that collapse over the next 75 years is unlikely, the AMOC is very likely to weaken, which will present climate challenges for Europe and beyond.” Professor Watson, of the University of Exeter adds: “So the AMOC is not only controlled by conditions in the North Atlantic, but also what's happening at the other

Arctic sea ice update - October 2018

, and often relatively warm. Although ice loss was quite slow early and late in the season, ice loss was very fast during the second half of July, possibly in association with southerly winds and storms in the Siberian coastal seas. Predictions of September ice extent this year as submitted to the Sea

oct18_sea_ice_update.pdf

in the Laptev, Kara, Chukchi and western Beaufort seas. • Weather conditions in the Arctic this summer were quite unsettled, and often relatively warm. Although ice loss was quite slow early and late in the season, ice loss was very fast during the second half of July, possibly in association

Arctic and Antarctic end-of-season report - October 2025

pattern of below-average Antarctic ice anomalies was very different in 2025 to the record low year of 2023, and this can mainly be traced to different patterns of atmospheric circulation. A persistent strong Amundsen Sea Low drove a large part of this year’s low September extent   Arctic Sea ice extent

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