WISER Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

View an Arabic translation of this page | شاهد الترجمة العربية لهذه الصفحة

The MENA region experiences a range of weather and climate hazards including extreme heat, drought and flooding. It is estimated there are over 50 million people in the region who need humanitarian assistance, making them more vulnerable to the impacts of such extremes.   

The impacts from our changing climate cascade through complex systems in unpredictable ways, exacerbating security threats and presenting new ones. In a region that is already fragile due to previous and ongoing conflict, effective early warning systems are vital, protect lives and can, when combined with other societal strengthening, help address national security challenges. 

Recognising this, WISER MENA seeks to provide support to humanitarian organisations to improve their capability and opportunity to integrate weather and climate forecasts and warnings into their operations. This ultimately aims to support them in making critical decisions to take early action which can ultimately save lives, livelihoods and reduce response costs. From 2022-2023, an extensive scoping exercise was conducted to underpin the design of the WISER MENA programme.

Take a look at our Country Profiling Map that provides an interactive and accessible overview of the Met Office’s international development projects and global partnerships, including the WISER MENA programme.

WISER MENA projects

Our projects support the generation, access and use of weather and climate information in conflict and post-conflict affected contexts.

Whilst Anticipatory Action and community-based Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) are well- established among the humanitarian community in other areas of the world, they are less widespread in the MENA region. 

WISER MENA is therefore aiming to stimulate this through working closely with humanitarian organisations at regional, national and local levels to identify how they can use forecasts to act on weather and climate information sooner to avoid negative impacts.  

The sections below detail the projects supporting this effort. Follow the links to navigate to a section:

Provision of weather forecasts

Strengthening seasonal forecasting

Building resilience to extreme weather and climate change

Stimulating innovation for forecasts

Provision of weather forecasts

Where there is limited local resource to provide regular operational forecasts, the Met Office has been providing forecasts directly to humanitarian organisations. This is done in partnership with the National Meteorological Services in-country with WISER MENA working closely with them to build the capacity to provide forecasts directly to those who need them most. 

Developing Early Warning Systems (EWS) for farmers within Occupied Palestinian Territories (OPTs) 

A small grant to the Palestinian Agricultural Development Association (PARC) in Palestine has aimed to develop an Early Warning System (EWS) for farmers. This provides impact-based alerts to grape farmers to support preventative action for weather-related crop disease, which ultimately means that farmers can better prepare during growing seasons to avoid potential losses.

Strengthening seasonal forecasting

Seasonal forecasts can support planning and preparation in the longer term and can be an important decision-making tool for many sectors, including water management, energy, humanitarian, agriculture and health. WISER MENA implements a holistic approach to the enhancing of seasonal forecasting, where the resilience, autonomy and skill of seasonal forecasting is improved, while concurrently building capacity within the region’s National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) to communicate and co-produce tailored forecasts with users.  

Objective Seasonal Forecasting in MENA

WISER MENA is working in partnership with the Moroccan National Metorological and Hydrological Service, Maroc Meteo, to make the North Africa Regional Climate Centre’s (RCC) outlooks more objective. This involves prioritising numerical seasonal prediction models and robust scientific methodologies, in-line with World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) recommendations. The approach has previously led to improvements in forecasting skill in other regions, such as East Africa, under the WISER 2 Support to ICPAC project. The partnership between Met Office and Maroc Meteo has led to the development of the Objective Seasonal Outlook Package (OSOP) which is an open-source, community-driven tool that allows climate information producers, such as RCC, and NMHS, to provide regional and national level forecasts. 

Seasonal Co-production and Application

WISER MENA is working in partnership with the World Meteolrolgical Organisation (WMO) to strengthen the Arab Climate Outlook Forum (ArabCOF), with the Egyptian Meteorological Authority (EMA) to deliver seasonal training to NMHS forecasters, and with a number of climate information stakeholders to provide tailored, user-friendly forecasts for enhanced decision making.  

Together, the two projects recognise there is no use in a high-quality forecast if no one can understand how they can make decisions using it, and it is challenging to build trust with users without an accurate forecast. The pro-active synergy between them will collectively enhance the quality and accessibility of seasonal information for early decision making. 

Key activities across both projects include: 

• Documenting current processes in the production of the consensus-based ArabCOF forecast and identifying improvements to methodologies and automation.

• Development of an Objective Seasonal Forecasting (OSF) framework which automatically downloads forecast data, enables analysis and calibration and produces visual outlook maps. 

• Exploration into the use of AI/ML in prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) – a key driver of seasonal variability for parts of northern Africa. 

• Survey of ArabCOF participant needs and subsequent co-development of priorities with WMO to support the forum evolve. 

• A partnership with EMA to co-deliver training on seasonal forecasting, communication and co-production to NMHS forecasters.  

• Co-production of tailored seasonal forecasts for sectoral users across the MENA region. This collaboration will explore the need for National Met Services to co-produce bespoke, tailored forecasting products for their users, and recognise the need to evolve from a ‘one size fits all’ approach. 

Support to the Jahez project in Jordan 

WISER MENA is supporting the Jahez (“Ready”) project by working with International Water Management Institute (IWMI) to build resilience to extreme weather and climate change in refugee-hosting communities in Jordan. This will be achieved through a combination of community-based disaster-risk reduction (DRR) and nature-based solutions. Jahez will also seek to support the Government of Jordan to access climate finance. Activities include: 

• Working with Government of Jordan to strengthen the early warning system in Jahez’s 3 target sites, Irbid, Ramtha and Azraq. 

• Supporting Jordan Meteorological Department (JMD) with their priority capacity building needs. 

• Support Impact-Based Forecasting (IBF) skills development in Jordan, moving from what the weather will be, to what the weather will do.

Stimulating innovation for forecasts in MENA 

Across the WISER programme, innovation has come from local actors who have specific, informed ideas on how to communicate and use forecasts to support action.

WISER MENA supports pilot projects through its small grants to take these ideas forward and an innovative verbal pitch approach for this has helped reduce barriers to accessing FCDO funding which smaller organisations sometimes face.

In parallel, WISER MENA is also looking at how regional climate initiatives at scale can strengthen the weather and climate science needed to underpin strong forecasts and climate projections.

BBC Media Action

WISER MENA has partnered with BBC Media Action to strengthen how weather and climate information is communicated to communities facing climate-related risks, particularly wildfires. Initial work in Algeria focused on improving access to weather and climate information for the Amazigh community, including training and materials in Tamazight, Arabic and French. This helped strengthen local media capability and build trust with Civil Protection and forestry authorities.

The work has since expanded into Tunisia and continued in Algeria, bringing together journalists, officials, influencers and civil society actors to improve wildfire preparedness and communication. Activities have included practical workshops, mentoring and support for producing trusted content through radio, TV and digital platforms.

The partnership is now moving into a further phase focused on supporting national meteorological services in Jordan, with engagement from partners in Palestine and Syria, to map communication chains and develop clearer, more actionable communication products for impact-based forecasting.