Food security is a cornerstone of human wellbeing, yet it is increasingly under threat from the changing climate.
At the Met Office, we work closely with organisations such as the World Food Programme (WFP) to understand how weather and climate variability affect food systems. Our research highlights that while some regions may see short-term benefits from climate change, many more are likely to face significant challenges that could jeopardise food availability, access, utilisation, and stability.
Understanding food security
Food security is defined by the UN as a condition where all people, at all times, have physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food. It is assessed through four key dimensions:
- Availability: The presence of food through domestic production, imports, or aid.
- Access: The ability of households to obtain food through income, markets, or support.
- Utilisation: The nutritional value of food and the body’s ability to absorb it.
- Stability: The consistency of food supply and access over time.
Each of these dimensions is vulnerable to the impacts of weather and climate.
The Met Office #StateOfUKClimate Report for 2024 demonstrates how weather records and temperature and rainfall extremes are becoming increasingly frequent in the UK
— Met Office (@metoffice) July 14, 2025
Scroll through some key findings from the report ➡️
Learn more: https://t.co/lWe06Ulw1q
Climate drivers of food insecurity
There are a number of factors that could impact food security. These include:
- Rising temperatures
Average global temperatures are projected to rise in the coming decades. While this may extend growing seasons in some mid- to high-latitude regions, it is likely to reduce crop yields in seasonally arid and tropical areas. Heatwaves, which are becoming more frequent and intense, can damage crops during critical growth stages and reduce livestock productivity.
- Changing precipitation patterns
Global precipitation is expected to increase overall, but regional patterns will vary. Some areas may experience more rainfall, while others face prolonged dry spells. This variability is particularly concerning for regions dependent on rain-fed agriculture, where even small shifts in rainfall timing or intensity can have major consequences for food production.
- Extreme weather events
Droughts, floods and other extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and severe. These events can destroy crops, erode soil, damage infrastructure, and displace communities. In many cases, the negative impacts of extreme weather outweigh any potential benefits from warmer temperatures or increased CO₂ fertilisation.
- Drought and water scarcity
Drought is one of the most significant threats to food security. It reduces crop yields, depletes water supplies, and affects livestock health. Around 700 million people already living in semi-arid and arid zones are particularly vulnerable. In Sudan, for example, agriculture is largely rain-fed, making it highly sensitive to rainfall variability. Climate projections for the 2040s suggest increased heat and water stress, which could severely impact food production and livelihoods.
- Flooding and heavy rainfall
As the atmosphere warms, it can hold more moisture, leading to heavier rainfall events. These can cause flash floods that wash away crops, contaminate water supplies, and damage farming equipment. In the UK, intense summer rainfall is becoming more common, posing risks to crops during key stages of the growing season.
- Sea-level rise
Rising sea levels threaten to inundate low-lying agricultural land and salinise freshwater supplies. This is a growing concern for coastal communities and small island states, where food production is already constrained by limited land and resources.
- Tropical storms
Tropical cyclones provide essential rainfall in some regions but can also cause widespread destruction. Stronger winds and heavier precipitation associated with these storms can devastate crops, disrupt supply chains, and displace populations.
READ MORE: From heatwaves to downpours: July’s historical weather records
Health, nutrition, and food utilisation
Climate change also affects food utilisation by influencing health outcomes. Increased incidence of diseases such as diarrhoea and respiratory illness can impair nutrient absorption and increase nutritional needs. Poor health reduces labour productivity, further undermining food security.
The hunger and climate vulnerability index
To better understand the intersection of climate and food insecurity, the Met Office and WFP have developed the Hunger and Climate Vulnerability Index. This tool assesses exposure to climate stress, sensitivity to its impacts, and the capacity of populations to adapt. It provides a regional picture of current vulnerability and can be used to inform future adaptation strategies.
Food security in the UK
While much of the focus is on developing countries, the UK is not immune to climate-related food security risks. The UK Food Security Report 2021 identified climate change as a major long-term threat to domestic food production. Warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers are already affecting crop yields, soil health, and pest dynamics.
For example, the summer 2023 heatwave led to significant heat stress in livestock. Thousands of chickens and pigs died during transport, and dairy farmers reported reduced milk yields due to heat-related stress. Warmer winters are also creating more favourable conditions for pests and invasive species, which can damage crops and reduce yields.
READ MORE: Observations: The foundation of accurate weather forecasting
Supporting policymakers and building resilience
At the Met Office, we provide scientific support to help policymakers and the agricultural sector adapt to a changing climate. Our Food, Farming and Natural Environment climate service, funded by Defra, informs decisions on resilience and adaptation. We collaborate with organisations such as Fera Science, the University of Exeter, and the University of Warwick to develop tools for estimating pest emergence and assessing crop resilience.
We also support the UK’s Third National Adaptation Programme (NAP3) and the Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3), helping to identify and address key risks to the agri-food sector. Our work with Defra’s Genetic Improvement Networks explores the development of climate-resilient crop varieties through genetic technologies.
Reducing the risks
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that risks to food security will escalate with every increment of global warming. Limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels requires rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions across all sectors.
READ MORE: Weather and energy: Supporting the energy transition
Climate-resilient development offers a pathway forward. By integrating adaptation and mitigation strategies, we can reduce emissions while strengthening food systems against future shocks. This includes investing in early warning systems, improving agricultural practices, protecting ecosystems, and supporting vulnerable communities.
Weather and climate are inextricably linked to food security. As the climate continues to change, the risks to food production, access, and nutrition will grow. At the Met Office, we are committed to providing the science and tools needed to understand these risks and support effective adaptation. Through collaboration, innovation, and informed policymaking, we can build a more resilient and food-secure future for all.
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