The UK has seen a turbulent start to August, with Storm Floris bringing strong winds and heavy rain to many areas.
As we look ahead, another Atlantic low is on the horizon, though it’s not expected to be as severe. Beyond that, there are signs of a potential warm spell developing, particularly across southern and central parts of the country.
Jet stream driving unsettled conditions
The current jet stream pattern is straight and zonal, which typically favours the movement of low-pressure systems from the Atlantic towards the UK. This setup is responsible for the unsettled conditions expected later Wednesday into Thursday, as a low-pressure system southeast of Iceland draws in frontal systems. These will bring cloud and rain, particularly to western Scotland, where tightly packed isobars also indicate the likelihood of strong winds.
Focus shifts to tropical storm Dexter
Attention then turns to a developing system in the western Atlantic, tropical storm Dexter. As it approaches the UK, Dexter is expected to weaken and transition into an ex-tropical storm. By late Sunday into Monday, exact positioning and intensity is uncertain, complicating forecasts around its impacts.
READ MORE: Deep dive: Storm Floris, tropical developments and a warming summer
Short-term outlook: brighter spells and rising temperatures
Before Dexter’s influence, Thursday is expected to begin on a cloudy and damp note for many, especially across Wales, Devon, and Cornwall. However, this system is weakening, and as it moves southeast, rainfall will become lighter and more fragmented. Central and southern areas may remain cloudy, with a risk of showers in the northwest. Winds will strengthen later in the day around exposed coasts, but lighter winds in the south will make for a more pleasant afternoon, with highs of 23 to 24°C.
Friday brings a brighter start for much of England and Wales, with sunny spells and some hazy sunshine developing later. It should remain mostly dry, although northern areas will continue to experience blustery conditions and outbreaks of rain, particularly across Scotland. Temperatures will rise slightly, reaching 24 to 25°C in the southeast.
Weekend weather: dry in the south, wet in the north
As the weekend begins, many areas will enjoy dry and increasingly warm conditions, especially in the south. Temperatures are expected to climb to 25 or 26°C, while northern regions remain cooler and windier, with a chance of heavy, blustery showers. Sunday continues this pattern, with England and Wales seeing temperatures push into the high 20s. Scotland and Northern Ireland, however, will likely remain cloudy and damp, with strong winds and outbreaks of rain.
UV levels will also rise during the weekend, particularly in southern areas, so sun protection is advised.
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Early next week: Dexter’s influence and rising heat
Looking into next week, the forecast becomes more complex due to the evolving nature of ex-tropical storm Dexter.
Despite this, many models agree that unsettled weather will push in from the northwest, with a chance of showers spreadying furthe east at times. However, brighter interludes are likely, and temperatures are expected to rise, especially across central and southeastern regions. By Monday, some areas in the south of England could reach the low 30s.
Model variation and temperature trends
Regardless of the exact track of ex-tropical storm Dexter, many models suggest a warm plume of air will move in from the Atlantic, helping to boost temperatures from Sunday through to Wednesday. Box and whisker plots show increasing spread in temperature forecasts, indicating growing uncertainty but also a clear signal of rising heat.
By Monday, temperatures of 30°C are possible in localised areas, particularly in the southeast. London, for example, could see highs around this mark. On Tuesday, the probability of reaching 30°C increases, with some areas potentially climbing even higher. Wednesday may also bring similar conditions, though the longevity of any warmth is as yet very uncertain.
READ MORE: What is the Azores High?
Late next week: return of the Azores high
Towards the end of next week, current projections suggest a return of the Azores high, extending into western parts of the UK. This would reintroduce a more typical northwest–southeast split in conditions. Scotland, Northern Ireland, and northern England may see further wet and windy weather, while central and southern England are likely to remain dry and bright.
The next 10 days will feature a mix of unsettled and increasingly warm weather. While the northwest remains prone to rain and wind, the south will enjoy drier, sunnier conditions with temperatures rising into the high 20s and possibly low 30s.
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