The UK’s weather over the next ten days will bring a mix of unsettled spells and some stormy conditions before a return to more settled weather later in the period.
As we head into Thursday, a north-westerly flow will dominate, bringing showery bursts across many parts of the country. A frontal system in the southwest will contribute to this, but showers are also expected further north, particularly across parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland.
The most intense and frequent showers are likely across southern England and parts of Wales, where there is a significant risk of heavy, thundery downpours. Rainfall totals could reach 25 to 35mm in just an hour, with up to 60mm possible over a few hours. These conditions may lead to localised flash flooding, accompanied by frequent lightning and hail. A warning has been issued.
Thunderstorms and heavy showers may bring some disruption across southern England on Thursday ⛈️
— Met Office (@metoffice) July 30, 2025
They will be hit and miss, but where they do occur torrential downpours are possible pic.twitter.com/KiJqe61pup
Temperatures in the south will peak in the mid-20s, with a humid feel. Further north, values will be slightly lower but still reaching the high teens or low 20s, especially where sunny spells develop, such as in Northern Ireland and East Anglia.
Turning fresher into the weekend
Thursday evening will see showers gradually easing, with clearer skies developing overnight into Friday. Temperatures will fall slightly, offering a fresher and more comfortable night for many.
On Friday, a trough-like feature and a jet streak will influence eastern parts of the UK, invigorating showers there. These may bring 20–30 mm of rain in a few hours, though they are not expected to be as intense as Thursday’s downpours. Western areas will see fewer showers and more in the way of dry, bright spells. Temperatures will be a touch lower, continuing the fresher trend.
Weekend: a tale of two halves
Saturday sees a ridge of high pressure building in, reducing much of the shower activity. While a few light and short-lived showers are possible, most areas will enjoy a fine and dry day.
However, Sunday brings a change. A frontal system associated with a low pressure to the southwest of Iceland will move south-eastwards across the UK. This could bring heavy and potentially thundery rain, particularly in the east and southeast later in the day. The rain band is expected to be relatively narrow, so some areas will remain dry. Temperatures will dip further, making Sunday feel cooler than recent days.
READ MORE: Met Office Deep Dive: Thundery showers and jet stream shifts
Early next week: potential for stormy conditions
Attention then turns to a developing low-pressure system originating from the eastern United States. As it crosses the Atlantic, its evolution will depend on the position of the jet stream. If it tracks along the northern side of the jet, it could undergo rapid cyclogenesis, deepening quickly and bringing unseasonably wet and windy weather to the UK.
Model guidance varies, with some suggesting a deep low crossing Scotland on Monday, bringing gusts of 50-60 mph, possibly 70-80 mph in exposed areas. This could lead to disruption, particularly given the number of outdoor events and temporary structures in place at this time of year. Other models show a slower or weaker system, highlighting the uncertainty in the forecast.
READ MORE: What are weather fronts?
Later next week: signs of high pressure returning
Beyond the early week unsettled spell, there are signs that high pressure will build from the southwest. This would bring drier and more settled conditions, particularly across southern parts of the UK. While northern areas may still see some rain, the overall trend is towards quieter weather.
Temperatures are expected to rise again, particularly in the south. London, for example, could see values several degrees above average by the middle to end of next week, though some uncertainty remains at this range.
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