At first glance, this week’s weather might seem like typical British summertime, some sunshine, some showers, and nothing too dramatic.
However, a closer look reveals a few interesting developments, including the potential for thundery downpours.
The Azores High remains in charge
The dominant feature this week is the Azores High, a large area of high pressure sitting to the southwest of the UK. While it’s not directly overhead, it is influencing our weather by keeping things relatively settled in the south and central parts of the UK. However, its position allows for frontal systems to swing in from the northwest, particularly affecting Scotland, Northern Ireland and parts of northern England.
This setup means we’re seeing a mix of sunshine and showers, with the clearest weather likely in southern and central areas. The northwest, meanwhile, remains more changeable, with cloudier skies and occasional rain.
READ MORE: What is the Azores High?
Thundery showers on Thursday
The main watchpoint this week is Thursday, when conditions could turn quite unsettled. A combination of increasing humidity and a frontal system moving in from the west could trigger heavy, possibly thundery showers across parts of eastern England. A yellow weather warning has been issued for Southern England from 10am until 9pm on Thursday.
Forecast models are showing some variability in the exact location of these showers. Some runs suggest the heaviest rainfall could be concentrated in the southeast, including London, Kent, Sussex and East Anglia. Others hint at more widespread activity, including parts of Wales and the southwest.
⚠️ Yellow weather warning issued ⚠️
— Met Office (@metoffice) July 30, 2025
Thunderstorms across southern parts of England
Thursday 1000 – 2100
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A fresher feel by Friday
As we move into Friday, a shift in wind direction from north-westerly to more of a northeasterly or easterly flow will bring in fresher air. This should help reduce the humidity, particularly across central and northern areas. However, the south may still feel warm and muggy for a time.
Temperatures through the week are expected to remain around average for the time of year, with highs of 24-25°C in the south and high teens to low 20s further north.
Weekend outlook
Saturday looks to be the better day of the weekend, with plenty of dry weather and sunny spells for many. However, another system is expected to push in from the northwest, bringing thicker cloud and outbreaks of rain to Scotland, Northern Ireland and possibly northern England. Central and southern areas are likely to stay drier for longer.
READ MORE: What are weather fronts?
Looking further ahead
There is a low chance of more stormy weather developing early next week. This would require a specific set of ingredients to come together, including a low-pressure system off the eastern US or Canada being picked up by the jet stream and undergoing cyclogenesis (rapid deepening) as it moves towards the UK.
While most model runs currently favour continued high pressure and changeable conditions, a few ensemble members from the European model are hinting at this possibility. Even if this stormy weather doesn’t materialise, there is a higher (around 30%) chance of impactful winds and rain in the northwest.
Thunderstorms across Europe
The UK isn’t alone in experiencing unsettled weather. Parts of Europe, particularly northern Italy and Germany, have seen intense thunderstorms recently, with gusty winds, frequent lightning and large hail. Meanwhile, southeastern Europe, including Greece and Turkey, continues to experience hot, dry conditions and elevated wildfire risk.
This contrast is linked to the position of the jet stream and the blocking effect of the Azores High. As the high gradually shifts eastward over the next few weeks, we may see warmer and drier conditions returning to parts of Europe and the UK.
Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.
