As we move through the final days of July and into early August, the UK’s weather pattern is showing signs of change.
The latest ten-day trend highlights a shift in the jet stream and the influence of both Atlantic systems and high pressure from the Azores, leading to a mixed picture across the country.
Jet stream becomes more mobile
Over recent days, the UK has been under the influence of a dip in the jet stream, with low pressure sitting at its centre. This has brought unsettled conditions, including heavy showers and thunderstorms for many. However, the jet stream is now becoming more mobile and westerly, allowing weather fronts to move in from the Atlantic, particularly affecting northern and western areas.
At the same time, the Azores high is beginning to ridge in from the southwest. This interaction is creating a developing north–south split in the weather, with more settled conditions likely further south and more changeable weather to the north.
Over the past few days, many parts of the UK have experienced slow-moving summer downpours, and the pattern looks set to continue.
— Met Office (@metoffice) July 23, 2025
In this week’s Deep Dive, we explore the meteorological ingredients behind these showers and thunderstorms.
Find out more in our blog 👇
Weekend outlook: showers and sunshine
Friday is expected to bring a northwest–southeast split. Cloudier skies and patchy rain will affect the north and west, with a weak weather front moving eastwards. Temperatures here will be fresher, ranging from 17 to 21°C, accompanied by a brisk westerly breeze. In contrast, central and southern parts of the UK will enjoy sunnier conditions, with temperatures climbing into the mid to high 20s.
Saturday looks fairly cloudy overall, with some bright or sunny spells and a scattering of showers. A developing area of low pressure may begin to affect the southwest later in the day, although there is still some uncertainty around its evolution. Most areas should remain dry, but showers are possible, and temperatures will range from the high teens to mid-20s.
Model uncertainty for Sunday
Looking ahead to Sunday, different weather models are showing varying outcomes. The Met Office’s global model suggests a deeper area of low pressure developing to the southwest of the UK, while other models such as ECMWF and GFS show a weaker system or push it away more quickly. This has implications for rainfall, with the Met Office model previously indicating the potential for intense rainfall totals—up to 80 mm in some southwestern areas. However, more recent runs suggest lower totals, though still higher than other models.
READ MORE: What are the top ten highest temperatures recorded in July?
This highlights the uncertainty in the forecast for Sunday. While some heavy showers are still possible, the more persistent and widespread rain may stay away from the UK. Central and southern parts could still see some heavy showers, but these may ease later in the day depending on how the low pressure system develops.
Next week: a westerly regime continues
Into next week, the overall pattern remains westerly, with the Azores high attempting to extend across the southwest. Low pressure to the north will continue to bring windier and wetter conditions at times, particularly for northern areas. Southern and western parts may see drier and more settled weather, especially if the high pressure nudges further north and east.
Temperatures are expected to be near average for the time of year, with the warmest conditions likely in sheltered eastern and southeastern areas. The sunshine remains strong, and it will feel pleasant when skies clear.
READ MORE: Ocean forecasting at the Met Office: What are ocean models?
Hints of a more settled August
As we move into early August, there are tentative signs of a more settled spell developing. Some models are hinting at a Scandinavian high building to the north of the UK, which could bring drier and warmer conditions. However, confidence remains low at this range.
For now, the ten-day trend points to a typical British summer pattern: a north–south split, with low pressure more dominant in the north and high pressure influencing the south. While not entirely dry, southern areas are likely to see more sunshine and warmth, while the north remains more changeable.
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