Met Office 10-day trend: Unsettled weather continues into November

This period covers Halloween, bonfire night, and the move towards late autumn. While global weather headlines have been dominated by Hurricane Melissa’s impact in the Caribbean, the UK’s weather story is shaped by a series of Atlantic low-pressure systems, including the remnants of Melissa itself.

Will Hurricane Melissa reach the UK?

Hurricane Melissa made landfall in Jamaica as a category 5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 185 mph. After causing devastation in the Caribbean, Melissa is now weakening over cooler North Atlantic waters. There is no risk of hurricane conditions reaching the UK.

Instead, Melissa will become a typical mid-latitude low pressure system, moving to the north of the UK and blending with other Atlantic lows. This means the UK will not experience anything like the destructive conditions seen in the Caribbean, though the remnants of the system will help continue unsettled weather into next week. 

A chilly start, then turning unsettled

The 10-day forecast begins with a chilly start for many, especially across northern parts of the UK, where clear skies under a ridge of high-pressure bring mist, fog patches, and even a touch of frost.

It's a chilly but bright start to Thursday morning for most ☀️

Cloud will build from the west with heavy rain and strong winds moving into Northern Ireland 🌬️ pic.twitter.com/lWAg1MTkZk

— Met Office (@metoffice) October 29, 2025

By Thursday lunchtime, bright skies persist in the east, but cloudier conditions develop in the west as a warm front brings persistent rain to Northern Ireland and parts of Wales. Winds will strengthen, with gusts of 60 to 70mph possible in exposed parts of Northern Ireland, potentially causing some disruption. A warning has been issued for this.

Through Thursday evening and overnight, a band of heavy rain sweeps eastwards across the country, keeping temperatures higher than previous nights. By Friday, low pressure to the northwest dominates, bringing a mix of showers and longer spells of rain. Some of these showers could be lively, with thunderstorms, hail, and gusty winds, particularly across central and southern areas. Temperatures may reach 16°C in the south, but it will feel blustery, especially near coasts and during heavier downpours.

Halloween and Bonfire night: A mixed outlook

For those heading out on Halloween, the forecast is a mixed bag. The driest and clearest weather is likely in the east, but it will remain blustery. Western areas may see a drier start to the evening, so early trick-or-treaters could fare better before another batch of showery rain arrives. These showers, accompanied by gusty winds, will cross the country overnight, clearing eastern parts by Saturday morning.

Saturday brings a more traditional mix of sunny spells and showers, with the risk of thunderstorms in places and gusty winds around showers. It will feel a little cooler, but the unsettled theme continues into Saturday night, with further showers and blustery winds keeping overnight temperatures up.

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By Sunday morning, another cluster of heavy showers is expected across Wales and the southwest, with further showers in northwest Scotland and clearer spells in the east.

Remnants of Melissa and the Atlantic lows

Through Sunday and the start of next week, the remnants of what will by then be ex-Hurricane Melissa, at that point a typical Atlantic low, may bring outbreaks of rain and stronger winds to northern and western parts of the UK.

The Met Office model and European ensemble output suggest that Melissa is most likely to track to the northwest of the UK, between Iceland and Scotland. While a minority of model simulations bring the low further south, the consensus is for a track to the north, keeping the most severe weather away from the UK.

The start of November is set to be dominated by low pressure to the north or northwest of the UK, with a strong signal for above-average rainfall in western Scotland, Wales, northwest England, Northern Ireland, and the southwest. Eastern areas are likely to see nearer-average rainfall. Strong south-westerly winds will bring bands of rain interspersed with showery days, maintaining the unsettled theme.

Looking further ahead: Signs of change

As we progress through the first full week of November, the most likely weather pattern remains one of low pressure to the north or northwest, bringing wet and windy conditions, especially to the west. However, by the 8th to 10th of November, there are tentative signs of a shift.

READ MORE: Met Office weather stations: How we measure the weather

Some model scenarios suggest higher pressure building to the south or east of the UK, which could bring more settled interludes, particularly in southern areas. While changeable weather is still favoured, the chance of drier and calmer spells increases as we move towards mid-November.

In summary, the Met Office 10-day trend points to a continuation of unsettled weather, with frequent spells of rain, blustery winds, and the risk of thunderstorms, especially in the west. The remnants of Hurricane Melissa will play a role in the pattern, but there is no threat of hurricane conditions in the UK.

As we move into November, there are early signs that more settled weather could develop, particularly in the south, but for now, the focus remains on staying prepared for further wet and windy days ahead.

Hurricane Melissa has brought devastating impacts and it's expected to head towards the cooler waters of the North Atlantic during the next few days. But will it be any different to the other Atlantic lows the UK is expected to face in the upcoming week?

Find out👇 pic.twitter.com/wTcefmI87t

— Met Office (@metoffice) October 29, 2025

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