While some parts of the UK will enjoy spells of warm sunshine this weekend, the main risk will be that of heavy downpours and thunderstorms.
As is often the case in summer, forecasting the exact location and timing of thunderstorms remains a challenge, but the broader weather pattern is becoming clearer.
Warm, humid air meets low pressure
A low-pressure system is currently positioned to the northwest of the UK, with relatively slack isobars indicating light winds. Meanwhile, a plume of warm, humid air is pushing northwards from the continent. This combination of moisture and energy is expected to trigger widespread thundery downpours, particularly from Friday night into Saturday.
These showers are likely to move up from France overnight, bringing the risk of intense rainfall to parts of the southeast by Saturday morning. As the day progresses, the area of rain is expected to spread northwards, potentially affecting East Wales, the Midlands, and even southern Scotland. While some areas may see a temporary lull in the rain, any sunshine that breaks through could reignite thunderstorm development.
⚠️⚠️ Amber weather warning issued ⚠️⚠️
— Met Office (@metoffice) July 18, 2025
Torrential, thundery rain across parts of southeast England
Saturday 0400 - 1100
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Warnings in place
A Yellow severe weather warning is in place from midnight on Friday night to 21:00 on Saturday across much of England.
An Amber severe weather warning has also been issued from 04:00 on Saturday until 11:00 on Sunday covering southeastern parts of England. The warning area includes London which is particularly susceptible to surface water issues during thunderstorms due to the high proportion of impermeable surfaces. Within this area, 20-40mm of rain could fall in an hour, with up to 70-100mm accumulating in just a few hours. If these higher totals fall over urban areas, there could be notable impacts.
Breakdown for Saturday
Saturday will bring a mixed picture across the UK. While central and southern England face the greatest risk of thunderstorms, other areas may see drier and brighter conditions. Northern Ireland, particularly in the east, and parts of western Scotland are likely to enjoy a largely fine day.
South Wales and the southernmost counties of England may also see some sunshine during the afternoon, although cloud will begin to build again from the southwest later in the day. Temperatures will remain warm and humid, with highs of 24 to 25°C possible in the far south. Elsewhere, values will be slightly lower, generally in the low 20s, and cooler still in the north and west.
Compared to Friday, temperatures will be down by three to six degrees in some areas, particularly across the Midlands and eastern England. Despite the dip, it will still feel muggy and close in many places.
READ MORE: Why has it been so warm and humid recently?
Unsettled again on Sunday
Looking ahead to Sunday, the weather remains unsettled as the area of low pressure begins to move in from the southwest. This will bring further bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms, although the exact positioning of these features remains uncertain.
The atmosphere will remain unstable, meaning that any breaks in the cloud could quickly lead to renewed thunderstorm development. Eastern Scotland is expected to be quite cloudy, with some heavier rain possible, while the south coast of England may experience gusty winds.
Between the showers, there will be some sunshine, and it will still feel warm where the sun does appear. However, humidity levels are expected to ease slightly as the weekend progresses, particularly if the breeze picks up along eastern coasts. In areas where cloud persists, temperatures may struggle to rise out of the teens.
This weekend will be dominated by a mix of warm, humid air and low pressure, leading to a heightened risk of thunderstorms and heavy downpours. While not everyone will see severe weather, those in the warning area should stay up to date with the latest forecasts and be prepared for possible disruption.
Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.