After an exceptionally warm and dry summer for many parts of the UK, the weather pattern is beginning to change.
While the next 10 days will not be a complete washout, there are increasing signs that more typical autumn weather is returning, bringing a greater chance of rain, stronger winds and more changeable conditions.
The main driver behind this change is the return of a stronger Atlantic influence. The jet stream is becoming more active, helping to steer areas of low pressure towards the UK. This marks a departure from the more settled patterns that have dominated much of the summer.
Warm and humid through the end of the week
Before the Bank Holiday weekend arrives, low pressure will continue to influence conditions across the UK.
Through Thursday, parts of England and Wales are likely to experience slow-moving bands of rain and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy downpours. Many areas will remain warm and humid, with temperatures widely reaching the mid-20s, while even northern parts of the UK may see temperatures climb into the lower 20s. The humid feel is expected to persist both by day and night.
By Friday, the same area of low pressure remains nearby, bringing further outbreaks of rain, particularly across northern areas. Parts of south-west England and south-west Wales could also see heavy, thundery showers, while Northern Ireland is likely to experience the driest conditions. Despite the rainfall, there will be some drier interludes, especially across more central parts of the UK.
If you've got plans over the next few days, keep an eye on the forecast. 🌧️
— Met Office (@metoffice) August 26, 2026
Low pressure remains in charge, bringing showers, rain and a risk of thunderstorms.
While the overall picture is clear, where the heaviest rain and thunderstorms develop remains uncertain. ⛈️ pic.twitter.com/n5MSSjTK97
Changeable conditions for the Bank Holiday weekend
Attention then turns to the Bank Holiday weekend in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, when a succession of Atlantic weather systems is expected to bring a more unsettled spell of weather across the UK, with rain or showers at times and strengthening winds.
On Saturday, a fresh area of low pressure is expected to move in from the south-west. This is likely to bring a more persistent spell of rain that gradually spreads northwards and eastwards through the day. While most areas are expected to see some rainfall, there will still be opportunities for brighter and drier spells between weather systems. Forecast details, including the timing of rainfall, remain subject to some uncertainty.
Winds are also expected to strengthen through Saturday, particularly across south-western areas. As the low-pressure system tracks through the English Channel, some stronger winds may also develop across parts of south-east England.
Sunday is likely to remain unsettled as another area of low-pressure approaches. Northern Ireland and north-west Scotland currently appear most likely to see prolonged spells of rain, although heavy showers are possible almost anywhere. There is also the possibility of intense rainfall developing across southern and eastern parts of the UK as weather systems move northwards from the near continent.
Temperatures will be closer to average than they have been recently, generally reaching the low 20s. Nights are also expected to become a little cooler than those experienced earlier in the week.
Breezier conditions on Bank Holiday Monday
The low-pressure system affecting the UK over the weekend is expected to deepen into Monday.
This could bring a breezy or locally windy day, particularly across northern parts of the UK, although many areas are likely to notice stronger winds than have been typical during the summer months. Those attending outdoor events, festivals or planning camping trips may wish to keep a close eye on the forecast as the weekend approaches.
READ MORE: Deep Dive: Why thunderstorms are finally returning to the UK
A wetter start to meteorological autumn
Meteorological autumn begins on 1 September, and the most likely weather pattern for the opening days of the season features low pressure to the north of the UK and higher pressure further south across Europe.
This setup favours a predominantly westerly airflow, with temperatures generally close to the seasonal average. It is also likely to result in wetter conditions across north-western parts of the UK, while southern and eastern areas may experience a greater number of drier spells.
Although there is some uncertainty in the details, forecast guidance suggests the broad pattern is likely to persist through much of the first week of September. Low pressure is expected to remain the dominant influence to the north, while higher pressure occasionally extends northwards from continental Europe. This should bring a mix of wetter and drier days rather than prolonged periods of either settled or unsettled weather.
Autumn arrives, but not a washout
While the first week of September is expected to be wetter than the exceptionally dry conditions many areas have experienced recently, it is not currently looking like a completely wet period. The forecast suggests rainfall totals may end up above average, particularly across northern and western areas, but there should still be opportunities for drier weather and occasional brighter spells.
Temperatures throughout next week are expected to settle back towards seasonal norms. The exceptional heat of summer appears to be ending, with conditions becoming more typical of early autumn. There may still be occasional warmer days in southern areas when drier weather develops, but there are currently no strong signals suggesting a return to prolonged hot weather.
Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.
