Meteorological autumn has begun with a characteristically changeable weather pattern.
The jet stream will remain active across the Atlantic over the next 10 days, helping to develop areas of low pressure and steer them towards the UK.
This means further spells of rain and strong winds are possible, although there will also be some drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures will vary as the UK alternates between warmer, more humid air and cooler conditions arriving from the Atlantic.
Persistent rain moves south
Rain will become increasingly persistent across parts of Northern Ireland, northwest England and Scotland later on Thursday. The associated weather front will then move gradually south and east through Thursday night and Friday.
There is some uncertainty over its precise position, but northwest England and north Wales are most likely to experience the highest rainfall totals. Around 70mm could fall in some locations, making this an area to watch. Parts of northwest Scotland could also receive significant rainfall, while southern areas are more likely to see lighter and drizzlier rain.
Behind the front, blustery and potentially heavy showers will affect Scotland and Northern Ireland. Gusts could reach around 40mph across parts of the north on Friday afternoon, making it feel cooler and fresher. Rain farther south will become more intermittent before conditions gradually turn drier.
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A brighter start to the weekend
High pressure will briefly build from the south on Saturday, bringing a largely dry and bright day to much of England and Wales. Northern areas are likely to see more cloud, with a little light rain possible.
Temperatures could reach 23°C or 24°C in the best of the sunshine, although values in the high teens will be more typical. For many places, Saturday is likely to offer one of the driest and brightest periods of the current forecast.
Warm but increasingly windy for some on Sunday
A marked northwest-to-southeast contrast is expected on Sunday as a potentially deep area of low pressure approaches the north and west of the UK.
Rain is likely to reach northwestern areas during the afternoon, accompanied by strengthening winds. Gusts of around 40mph are possible inland across parts of northern England, southern Scotland and northwestern Scotland, although the strength and track of the low remain uncertain.
Ahead of the rain, a southerly airflow will bring warm air across central and southern England. With plenty of sunshine, temperatures could climb into the high 20s. It may feel hot in sheltered locations, although the warmth is expected to be short-lived.
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Low pressure returns next week
Sunday’s rain will move farther south and east on Monday, potentially lingering before a ridge of higher pressure brings a temporary improvement. Westerly winds could maintain wetter conditions in the north, while a weather front may be slow to clear the southeast. Monday should nevertheless be somewhat calmer than Sunday.
Forecast confidence decreases from Tuesday. Several scenarios indicate another area of low pressure moving across or close to the UK, bringing the potential for a spell of wet and windy weather. Some projections show a notably deep low, while others take a weaker system farther north and west. Its eventual development will depend partly on how it interacts with the jet stream.
Changeable conditions continue
The low is expected to move away during Wednesday, although it could remain windy for a time. A ridge of high pressure may then approach from the Atlantic, providing a short-lived drier interval.
Overall, the pattern through the latter part of the period remains unsettled. Wet and windy spells are likely to move through relatively quickly, but any drier and brighter periods may also be brief.
Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.
