As February draws to a close, many parts of the UK have experienced a remarkably mild spell, with temperatures climbing far above what is typical for the time of year.
Daytime highs of between 15–18°C were recorded across much of England on Wednesday, with the warmest locations reaching as high as 18.7°C at Kew Gardens. These values are exceptional for late winter and more reminiscent of conditions normally felt during April or early May.
The mildness has been most pronounced in the southeast, where clearer skies and light winds have allowed temperatures to rise even further. The last time we saw these kinds of temperatures was back in October last year, when 20.8°C was recorded at Aboyne and 20.1°C recorded at Durris.
While uncertainty remains over the exact progression of approaching frontal systems, the broader picture is clear: this is one of the warmest late‑February spells in recent years.
What is driving this warm spell?
A key driver behind the current mild conditions is the behaviour of the jet stream. In recent days, the jet stream has dipped unusually far south over the Atlantic before sweeping back northward over the UK. This distinctive pattern has opened the door to warm subtropical air, allowing it to travel across the country with ease. As a result, temperatures have climbed well above average in many areas, accompanied by bright and often sunny conditions across England and Wales.
The jet stream’s amplified shape has not emerged in isolation. A significant winter storm that recently affected northeastern North America injected considerable energy into the wider Atlantic storm track. As this system pulled away, it helped to strengthen and buckle the jet stream, enhancing the flow of mild air toward the UK. This is why the warmth has been both extensive and unusually intense, pushing temperatures into the high teens even though meteorological winter has yet to end.
These kinds of patterns, where the jet stream dips, tilts and accelerates, are not unusual in winter, but the degree of warmth transported during this episode is notable. The arrival of this mild air coincides with a broader trend of increasing winter variability, in which warm spells are appearing more frequently within the UK’s climate record.
READ MORE: What is the jet stream?
How does this compare to historical February warm spells?
While this week’s temperatures are impressive, warm February days are not without precedent. Historical records show several instances where the UK has experienced spring‑like warmth at this time of year, particularly during periods dominated by south-westerly Atlantic airflows.
Recent years include a number of memorable examples:
- Hull East Park reached 17°C last year, a temperature far more typical of late March or early April.
- Pershore in Hereford & Worcester recorded 18.1°C in 2024.
- Teddington Bushy Park in Middlesex also achieved 18.1°C that same year.
- The UK’s highest February temperature on record remains 21.2°C, measured at Kew Gardens in 2019.
These events fit within a wider pattern: winter warm spells have become increasingly common, often occurring when persistent southerly or south-westerly winds feed mild air across the UK for several days at a time.
You can explore these records using our interactive graph below.
Contrasts with February’s cold extremes
Yet mild late‑winter spells tell only part of February’s story. Historically, February is also capable of delivering some of the UK’s most severe cold weather. The record for the lowest February minimum, an extraordinary –27.2°C, was set in Braemar, a location well known for its extreme winter lows.
Even in recent years, sharp cold snaps have occurred:
- Aviemore recorded –9.6°C last year.
- Altnaharra in Sutherland fell to –13.8°C during the same period.
These bitterly cold temperatures usually develop under very different conditions: clear overnight skies, calm winds and air sourced from the north or east. Such patterns allow heat to escape rapidly from the land surface, producing severe frost and icy conditions.
This contrast highlights the dual personality of February. Depending on the prevailing weather pattern, the UK can oscillate between almost spring‑like warmth and deep winter cold in a matter of days.
You can explore February’s temperature trends using our interactive chart below.
How unusual is this year’s warmth?
While warm February days are not unprecedented, the scale and extent of this year’s mild spell stand out. Maximum temperatures in the high teens across large swathes of England are unusual, even within the context of recent climate variability. The persistence of the subtropical air plume and its reach into eastern England and the southeast is particularly striking.
Moreover, this warm spell is occurring against a backdrop of long‑term warming across the UK climate system. Winter average temperatures have been rising over recent decades, meaning that when warm air arrives, the resulting daytime highs can climb even further. The records from recent years, including multiple February days exceeding 18°C, reinforce this trend.
READ MORE: February’s weather extremes: a closer look at February's current weather records
However, it is also important to recognise that short‑term weather fluctuations are still heavily influenced by natural atmospheric variability. The current mild spell owes much to the unique alignment of the jet stream and the influence of previous trans‑Atlantic storm activity.
Although this warm spell is striking, it does not necessarily signal an early or permanent onset of spring. Forecast models suggest that more unsettled conditions are likely in the coming days, with a return to frontal systems, stronger winds and periods of rain, particularly in western areas. Temperatures are expected to fall back closer to seasonal averages as these systems move through.
Nevertheless, this week’s warmth provides a clear example of how winter is changing. While cold spells will still occur, episodes of notably mild weather are becoming more frequent during periods we often associate with winter. Understanding these shifts is vital for interpreting our weather, planning for the future and recognising the evolving character of the UK’s climate.
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