High pressure is set to become increasingly influential across the UK, bringing a spell of quieter and predominantly dry weather as October ends and November begins.
For many central, southern and eastern areas, high pressure could help maintain largely dry conditions from Thursday through to the first week of November. There will be interruptions, particularly as weak weather fronts cross the country, but high pressure is expected to remain the dominant feature into Friday 6 November.
When will high pressure take control?
The transition to more settled weather begins this week.
Wednesday will remain breezy, with variable cloud, sunny intervals and scattered showers. More persistent rain will affect parts of Wales and northwest England initially, but conditions become widely drier overnight.
By Thursday, high pressure will have a greater influence. Most areas will be dry with variable cloud and sunny spells once early mist, fog and low cloud across southern, central and eastern England clear.
With lighter winds beneath high pressure, fog will become an increasingly important feature of the forecast. Thursday night is expected to be dry for many, but fog is likely to develop again across central and eastern England.
Will high pressure keep everywhere dry?
Although high pressure will dominate for many areas, it will not completely prevent rain from reaching the UK.
On Friday, much of central, eastern and southern Britain will remain dry, although mist, fog and low cloud could be slow to clear. Meanwhile, a band of locally heavy rain will move into western and northern Scotland and Northern Ireland, accompanied by stronger winds.
This demonstrates an important feature of the coming weather pattern: high pressure will have its greatest influence farther south, while Atlantic weather fronts can still affect northern and western areas.
Will the settled spell continue through the weekend?
High pressure will continue to play a significant role over the weekend, but a weather front will make some progress south-eastwards across the UK.
On Saturday, the band of cloud and rain will edge towards northern England and northwest Wales. Ahead of it, England and Wales will be mostly dry, with variable cloud and some brighter spells once early mist and fog clear.
The front will continue south and southeast on Sunday, but its rain is expected to become increasingly light and patchy. Behind it, mainly dry conditions with clear or sunny spells will return.
By Monday, a little rain or drizzle may remain across southern areas before clearing, while the far north could see increasing cloud and some light rain. Elsewhere, dry conditions with clear or sunny spells are expected.
How long will high pressure last?
The settled pattern is expected to continue into the first week of November.
From Wednesday 4 to Friday 6 November, high pressure is likely to remain in charge, bringing mainly dry and settled conditions. Weak weather fronts may occasionally graze the far north and northwest, producing thicker cloud and a little light rain, but these should be exceptions to the broader dry theme.
As winds remain mainly light, fog is likely to become a recurring feature. Where fog forms overnight, it could be slow to clear during the day. Temperatures are expected to be near or a little below average, with a touch of overnight frost also possible.
Could this become a lengthy dry spell?
The upcoming period will be worth watching, but the forecast contains interruptions from weak weather fronts, meaning lengthy periods of dry weather will not necessarily amount to one continuous dry spell.
The key feature is instead the persistence of high pressure, which should keep rainfall below average during the first week of November, although some spells of rain remain possible, particularly towards the north and northwest.
When could high pressure finally give way?
There are signs of a change as November progresses.
During the second week of November, an Atlantic influence may develop and conditions are likely to become more changeable, if not unsettled. This would reopen the route for low pressure systems to move closer to the UK, bringing occasional wind and rain, particularly towards the north and west.
Settled interludes could still interrupt that transition, but deeper into November an unsettled regime is considered more likely than not. The forecast also indicates that wetter-than-average conditions are more likely than below-average rainfall for most areas during this later period, although confidence in exactly where and how much rain will fall remains low.
So, while the coming spell will not be completely rain-free, high pressure looks set to be the dominant influence into the first week of November, keeping much of the UK quieter and drier before the Atlantic potentially begins to regain influence.
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