Each week brings its own mix of meteorological interest, but this one stands out for its striking contrasts and unusual patterns around the world.
While large parts of the UK basks in warm spring sunshine, other regions are grappling with powerful winds, heavy rainfall and record‑challenging heat.
This week’s Deep Dive explores what is driving these conditions and what it means for different parts of the globe in the days ahead.
Warm spring sunshine heading for the UK
For those in the UK, the headline is simple: warm spring sunshine is on the way for many. Wales could see temperatures tipping over 20°C for the first time this year, and England is not far behind. This spells a distinctly springlike feel, with long sunny spells and light winds where high pressure dominates. Clear skies overnight will bring chilly conditions at times, but by day the sunshine will feel warm.
The jet stream plays a key role here, diving southwards across the Atlantic before looping back north and helping high pressure settle over the UK. This ridge will hold firm for several days, though a stubborn weather front will continue to bring cloudier skies to parts of Northern Ireland and southern Scotland. Elsewhere, sunshine will break through widely.
A disruptive jet stream shaping global weather
The jet stream is not just influencing the UK. Across the wider Atlantic and Europe, it is behaving in a particularly disrupted fashion. A pronounced dip, known as a trough, has fractured into a separate circulation, generating low‑pressure systems in normally settled regions such as Madeira, the Azores and the Canary Islands.
This process creates an unusual pattern: instead of cutting cleanly across the ocean, the jet stream splits, leaving behind a cut‑off upper low. This feature helps spawn surface lows that spin around each other, producing pulses of heavy showers and notably gusty winds across holiday destinations more accustomed to calmer, sun‑soaked weather.
READ MORE: What is the jet stream and how does it affect our weather?
Storm‑driven winds for island regions
Madeira and the Canary Islands find themselves under the influence of this unusual setup. Winds here typically blow from the northeast as part of the trade wind regime, but this week the flow swings round from the southwest. This reversal exposes coastlines and communities to wind and wave patterns they are not normally adapted to, increasing the risk of disruption.
Models show extremely unusual gust strength across parts of Madeira and the Canaries, highlighted by the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI), which flags events that lie far outside typical climatological ranges. These winds will persist for several days as small low‑pressure centres continue to rotate around each other.
Heavy rainfall in North Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean
Another area of interest lies further east across North Africa and the Levant. A lively subtropical jet is helping to generate further low‑pressure systems over the central and eastern Mediterranean. Tunisia, Libya and Malta have already seen heavy showers, and more widespread rain is expected as the week progresses.
As one system moves eastwards, it is likely to bring substantial rainfall to Cyprus, Turkey, Syria, northern Iraq and parts of Afghanistan. Though rainfall totals may not seem large by UK standards, they are significant, and potentially disruptive, for regions that are normally dry at this time of year. Gusty winds linked to these lows may also drive blowing dust across parts of Egypt and neighbouring countries.
Plenty of warm sunshine across England, Wales and eventually northern England ☀️
— Met Office (@metoffice) March 18, 2026
Cloudier and cooler over Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland with some rain at times 🌧️
Breeze picking up along the south coast later 🍃 pic.twitter.com/mRyra9MH9G
A powerful tropical system developing near Australia
On the other side of the globe, northern Australia is preparing for the arrival of a strong tropical cyclone. Initially appearing weak on satellite imagery, the storm has since intensified and been named by regional meteorological services. It is drawing energy from very warm seas and is expected to strengthen further before making landfall along northern Queensland.
Rainfall totals here could exceed 150–300 mm in some places, with Cairns sitting close to the potential impact zone. After crossing the coast, the storm may weaken slightly before re‑emerging over the Gulf of Carpentaria. There, it may re‑intensify over warm waters before making a second, and possibly even a third, landfall as it moves westwards toward the Northern Territory and potentially Western Australia.
If this trajectory holds, the storm could impact three different states within a week, an exceptionally rare outcome, having been recorded only a handful of times in the past century.
Record‑challenging heat building in the United States
Meanwhile, in the United States, temperatures are climbing toward exceptional levels. A highly amplified jet stream pattern has allowed a strong area of high pressure, a so‑called heat dome, to build over the southwest. This is pushing daytime temperatures across California and Arizona toward and beyond 40°C.
This follows a week of sharp contrasts, with heavy snow blanketing parts of northern Michigan only days earlier. Now, the focus shifts to the heat risk, as widespread warnings are issued for areas likely to exceed 37.8°C. Some locations may approach 45.5°C, well above long‑standing March records.
The EFI again highlights the severity of this event, indicating that temperatures sit at the extreme end of climatological expectations. Even cities further north, such as Salt Lake City, will see temperatures exceeding the seasonal extreme for several days.
READ MORE: March weather extremes: a closer look at March's current weather records
UK temperatures shifting through the week
Back home, the UK’s warmth hinges on wind direction. With high pressure in charge, subtle changes in the flow can produce noticeable differences in temperature. On Wednesday, western areas, particularly West Wales, could reach 20–22°C, which would be remarkable for mid‑March. North Devon and northern Cornwall may also see unusually warm conditions.
However, along the North Sea coast, an easterly breeze will keep things distinctly cooler, with cloudier skies and perhaps a little drizzle. By Thursday, temperatures dip by a degree or two in many areas, though still remaining above average. Then, as winds shift again by Friday, the warmest spots are likely to move toward eastern Scotland and northeast England.
These small‑scale variations underline the subtlety of spring forecasting under high‑pressure regimes, where sunshine and temperature depend heavily on local effects.
While much of the UK can expect plenty of sunshine and generally settled weather this week, changes may develop into early next week as the jet stream begins to shift again. For now, though, the focus remains on the remarkably warm spell for many, balanced by cloudier intervals across the northwest and northeast.
Globally, the picture is one of contrasts, unusual winds in the Canary Islands, significant Mediterranean rainfall, a powerful Australian cyclone and extraordinary heat in the American Southwest. Each of these reflects the ongoing influence of atmospheric dynamics at both polar and subtropical levels, reminding us that even as spring unfolds here, weather systems worldwide continue to evolve in complex and sometimes surprising ways.
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