Week ahead forecast: a warming trend, but with showers at times

Author: Met Office

Many of us began the working week with temperatures at or near freezing.

The good news is that it will steadily turn warmer through the next few days, both by day and by night. That said, as the air warms it will also become more prone to rising and producing showers, so the week ahead looks mixed rather than settled.

The bigger picture

The UK sits between competing weather systems, with high pressure positioned to the south‑west and north‑east, and low pressure to the south‑east and north‑west. This places us in a “col” pattern, but our day‑to‑day weather will be influenced more strongly by low pressure systems out in the Atlantic and an active jet stream. Instead of a fast‑moving system sweeping straight across the country, the overall pattern allows weather fronts to drift from west to east more slowly, bringing repeated spells of cloud, rain and showers.

A familiar split is likely at times: western areas more frequently exposed to incoming fronts from the Atlantic, while parts of the east see longer drier and brighter spells. Looking through the week as a whole, the wettest conditions are favoured in western hills, particularly across Wales, north‑west England and western Scotland, as well as Northern Ireland. In contrast, parts of eastern England may see relatively little rainfall overall.

Tuesday night and Wednesday: milder air arrives, winds strengthening

Tuesday night into Wednesday looks notably windier, with more weather fronts pushing in from the west. Wednesday is expected to start blustery, cloudy and much milder than earlier in the week, with many places beginning the day in double figures. Bands of rain will move through with some heavier bursts, and behind the front there is scope for brighter spells and showers, particularly for Wales and south‑west England later in the day. Northern Ireland and western Scotland are more likely to see frequent showers in the brisk wind.

In the warmer air ahead of the cold front, temperatures could climb into the high teens across parts of eastern England. High teens are also possible along the Moray coast, where winds coming over the hills may give a noticeable lift to temperatures.

Thursday: a more mixed day, with some areas staying dry

As we move into Wednesday night and Thursday, winds may ease a little as one low pressure system pulls away and the next has not fully arrived yet. Thursday looks like a typical sunshine‑and‑showers day for many, but with a better chance of drier interludes across the southern half of the UK. For the Midlands and north‑east England, much of the day is likely to be dry, though a few showers may develop across parts of the south.

The main focus for showers is expected across Northern Ireland and western Scotland, where a brisk breeze will continue to feed them in from the Atlantic. Temperatures may dip a little compared with Wednesday, but it should still feel mild for mid‑April, and any sunshine will add a real warmth as the strength of the spring sun increases day by day.

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Friday: another system brings rain and stronger winds

Later Thursday night into Friday, the next low-pressure system is expected to strengthen and become more influential. While the exact position of the associated rain band may still vary, it is likely to bring rain in from the west, accompanied by stiff winds and heavier bursts in places, particularly across western Scotland, west Wales and south‑west England. Ahead of the rain, there is potential for a good deal of dry and bright weather across the Midlands and eastern England, although showers are possible.

Behind the front, showers could become lively, and there is a chance of thunderstorms developing. With winds continuing from the south or south‑west, milder air is drawn northwards and highs could again reach the high teens, perhaps even close to 20°C around the London area. Further west, temperatures are more likely to sit nearer average, generally in the low teens.

Weekend: showers at first, then a chance of something drier

As we head into Saturday, low pressure is expected to move away northwards, but showers may still affect western areas. There are, however, signals that a “chunkier” area of high pressure may start to edge in and influence the weather later in the weekend. If that develops, conditions would become drier, brighter and more settled for more places, with Sunday offering the best chance of fine, dry and sunny weather.

Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.

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