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rise will impact coastal settlements through loss of beaches, shoreline retreat and inundation of low-lying areas posing a considerable risk for the third of West Africa’s population that live in coastal regions. Low-lying villages and settlements along the coast are vulnerable to inundation

South West monsoon. ENSO interacts with the variability and intensity of IOD on an interannual timescale, with positive phases of IOD correlating with warmer seasonal temperatures and above average precipitation (Wang et al., 2016). Tropical cyclones also impact countries surrounding the Bay

the JJAS season, mainly driven by weak tropical depressions that originate in the Bay of Bengal (Shahid, 2010). Rainfall distribution varies considerably, with the lowest amounts in central-western parts and highest in eastern parts (Figure 2). Floods are a common occurrence in Bangladesh

areas, the strongest of which are known as monsoon depressions. The depressions usually originate over the north of the Bay of Bengal from June to September, then propagate westnorthwestward along the axis of the monsoon trough to the Indian subcontinent, lasting 3 to 5 days on average (Godbole, 1977

002°35’43”W Titterstone Clee, near Ludlow, Shropshire Hameldon Hill 381060 428740 53°45’17”N 002°17’19”W Dunnockshaw, near Burnley, Lancashire Chenies 501642 199959 51°41’21”N 000°31’50”W Flauden, near Amersham, Hertfordshire Castor Bay 119112 520302 54°30’00”N 006°20’24”W Near Lurgan, Belfast

, it is likely to be wetter than normal in Japan, eastern China, the Korean Peninsula and the Philippines. It is likely to be drier than normal in Indonesia, Malaysia, and parts of the Indian subcontinent. The South Asian Monsoon usually starts in May over the Bay of Bengal, arriving in the Indian Peninsula

. The mild theme continued overnight into the 8 th with Colwyn Bay (Clwyd) not falling below 15.5 °C, then it was cloudy but mainly dry. The 9th was cloudy too, with a narrow band of light rain crossing parts of the west and north during the afternoon. 10th to 16th The 10th was mostly sunny, after some

is signalled for the upcoming season. 3-Month Outlook October to December - Rainfall Skilful prediction of activity levels across the North Indian Ocean (including the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) tends to be more limited. Whilst cyclones can form anytime from April to December, activity tends

, drier than normal is likely. Drier than normal also likely for parts of China, Korea and Japan. Tropical cyclones – Skilful prediction of seasonal activity levels across the North Indian Ocean (including the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) tends to be limited compared to other basins. Whilst cyclones

parts, clearing by early evening. The 16th was mainly fine and warm, with just a few isolated showers in the south during the afternoon. After a mild night, Colwyn Bay (Clwyd) not falling below 17.5 °C, the 17th was sunny and warm, Cardiff Bute Park reaching 28.4 °C, but coastal areas were cooler