Met Office Deep Dive: Storm season past and present

Author: Press Office

As we step into the first week of meteorological autumn, the weather across the UK is already showing signs of change.

After a long, hot, and dry summer, conditions have turned more unsettled, with a fair amount of rain and some heavy showers on the way. The Met Office has already issued weather warnings for rainfall and thunderstorms this week and there is a chance of further warnings as the week progresses.

Alongside the latest forecast, this week’s Deep Dive will explore the record-breaking summer just gone, the new storm names for the season, and a look back at the most significant storms of the past year.

The week ahead: Unsettled weather and needed rain

The start of autumn has brought cooler and fresher conditions compared to the end of summer. Already, a decent amount of rainfall has been recorded, and this is largely due to the current behaviour of the jet stream. The jet stream, a fast-flowing ribbon of air high in the atmosphere, is currently displaying a wavy pattern to the west of the UK, out in the Atlantic. This wavy pattern often leads to the development of low-pressure systems, which are responsible for the wet and windy weather expected this week. As these low-pressure systems deepen, they bring with them increased rainfall and gusty winds.

This rain is much needed. After a very dry spring and summer, many parts of the UK are experiencing drought conditions, and the ground is extremely dry. Persistent outbreaks of rain are essential to replenish water supplies and restore soil moisture. However, not everyone will welcome the return of wet weather, especially as it coincides with the first week back from the summer holidays for many.

A look ahead: High pressure, sunshine, and more uncertainty

As the week progresses, the weather will remain changeable. By Thursday, winds are expected to ease, and a ridge of high pressure will build from the south, bringing a day of sunny spells and showers. Some of these showers could be heavy, with the possibility of hail and thunder in places. Friday and Saturday are likely to be drier and more settled for much of England and Wales, although the northwest will see more cloud, rain, and gusty winds as another weather system approaches from the Atlantic.

From Sunday onwards, further rain is expected to push in from the west, although there is still some uncertainty about the exact timing and intensity. The southeast may enjoy a pleasant, warm start to the day, but the best of the brighter weather will depend on how quickly the next system moves through. The overall theme is one of changeability, with alternating spells of rain and sunshine as autumn gets underway.

Summer 2025: a record-breaking season

This summer has been one for the record books. The Met Office released its summer statistics this week, confirming that summer 2025 was the warmest on record, surpassing the previous high set in 2018. The average temperature for the season was around 16.10°C, compared to 15.76°C in 2018. Notably, Met Office studies show that a summer as hot or hotter than 2025 is now 70 times more likely than it would be in a natural climate without human-made greenhouse gases.

READ MORE: Summer 2025: A regional breakdown

The heat was not only intense but also persistent, with four separate heatwaves recorded. While the summer of 1976 is often remembered for its warmth, that heat lasted only a few weeks, whereas this year’s above-average temperatures were prolonged by blocked high-pressure patterns and a marine heatwave. UK temperatures are now warming at a rate of 0.25°C per decade, a trend that is already having a noticeable impact on the country’s weather and climate.

Rainfall and sunshine: regional contrasts

While the summer was exceptionally warm, it was also particularly dry across much of England and Wales, with rainfall at just 84% of the UK average. This followed the driest spring in over a century. However, not all regions were dry: western Scotland and northwestern England were slightly wetter than average. Sunshine totals were also above average for the UK as a whole, at around 110%, but areas with more rain saw less sunshine.

New storm names for the season

In addition to the weather and climate statistics, the Met Office has announced the new storm names for the coming season. Storm naming began in 2015 as a way to improve communication about severe weather and its potential impacts. Giving storms names helps the public and responders connect to the events, remember past storms, and prepare for future ones.

The first named storm of the season will be Storm Amy. The process of naming storms involves collaboration with meteorological agencies in Ireland and the Netherlands, ensuring that names are relevant and recognisable across the region.

Looking back: the storm season just gone

The previous storm season saw six named storms, ending with Storm Floris, a rare summer storm that struck on 1 August. Storm Ashley was the first of the season and was notable for undergoing explosive cyclogenesis, sometimes referred to in the media as a “weather bomb”. This process involves a rapid drop in atmospheric pressure, leading to very strong winds and heavy rain. Ashley’s pressure dropped from 988 to 952 hectopascals in just 24 hours, with peak gusts of 105 knots (about 120 mph) recorded in the Scottish Highlands.

Storm Bert: a multi-hazard event

Storm Bert followed Ashley and brought a complex mix of hazards, including heavy rain, strong winds, and snow. Snow warnings were issued in the lead-up to the storm, with accumulations across high ground in England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. Bert’s arrival saw intense rainfall along cold fronts, with some areas receiving over 150 millimetres, particularly in Dartmoor, South Wales, the Brecon Beacons, the Lake District, and Snowdonia.

The combination of snow, rain, and snowmelt led to significant hydrological responses, with flooding and landslides reported in several areas. The Met Office issued a range of warnings, yellow for rain, amber for snow and ice, reflecting the multi-hazard nature of the event. Met Office operational teams and advisers worked closely with emergency responders to ensure that warnings were clear and actionable.

Storm Connell and Storm Darragh: a busy period

Storm Connell arrived soon after Bert, bringing further heavy rain to areas already saturated by previous storms. Although not as impactful as some, its timing and the cumulative effect of repeated storms made it noteworthy.

READ MORE: A look back at the 2024/25 storm season

Storm Darragh was particularly significant, prompting red warnings for wind in western Wales and severe weather in the shipping forecast, including violent storm force 11. The season saw two red warnings in the shipping forecast, a rare occurrence. Storm Darragh caused major incidents in west and central Wales, with widespread power outages, fallen trees, and a real risk to life and infrastructure. For the first time, an emergency alert was sent for weather, highlighting the seriousness of the situation.

Storm Eowyn and the power of the jet stream

Storm Eowyn was one of the most powerful storms to hit the UK in recent years, especially for Northern Ireland, where it was the strongest since the Boxing Day storm of 1988. Like Ashley, Eowyn underwent explosive deepening as it approached the UK, driven by the dynamics of the jet stream. The storm brought hurricane-force winds, red warnings, and phenomenal sea states, particularly around the Irish Sea. Large waves and beach material were thrown inland, posing a significant risk to life.

The sequence of storms, combined with hazardous weather before and after, underscored the growing risk of multiple storms in quick succession.

Storm Floris: a rare summer storm

The season ended with Storm Floris, an unusual summer storm that arrived late in the season. While summer storms are not unheard of, they can be particularly impactful because more people are travelling, camping, or on holiday. Floris brought record-breaking wind gusts to Scotland, with mountain summits seeing up to 100 mph and the August wind record being broken.

The decision to name Floris was made in collaboration with partners in Ireland and the Netherlands, based on the confidence in the forecast and the potential for significant impacts. The storm was well forecast, with warnings issued several days in advance.

READ MORE: A look back at Storm Floris

The importance of clear communication and preparedness

Throughout the storm season, the Met Office worked closely with partners and emergency responders to ensure that warnings were timely, clear, and actionable. The experience of recent storms has highlighted the importance of multi-hazard warnings, the challenges of forecasting complex events, and the need for public awareness and preparedness.

Storm naming has proven to be an effective tool for communication, helping people remember past events and take action when new storms are forecast. As the climate continues to change, the Met Office remains committed to providing the best possible forecasts and warnings to keep people safe.

As we move further into autumn, the weather will remain changeable, with a mix of rain, sunshine, and the potential for further storms. The record-breaking summer of 2025 and the busy storm season just gone are reminders of the UK’s variable climate and the importance of staying informed.

Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.

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