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into the afternoon. Later on, as we go through the rest of the week, it’s staying quite changeable. Now, changeable doesn’t mean a total washout. Not at all. There will be some dry, warm weather around and it is going to be quite humid at times, too. And with that, then there’s also the potential of some showers

a yellow warning for rain in force for much of Thursday, with totals continuing to top up after a wet few days. ⚠️ Yellow weather warning issued ⚠️ Rain across eastern parts of Northern Ireland Thursday 0700 – 1700 Latest info 👉 https://t.co/QwDLMfRBfs Stay #WeatherAware⚠️ pic.twitter.com

, the wind will have changed direction ever so slightly and that does mean that we're perhaps going to see a few more showers penetrating a bit further in land across parts of northeast England and with that then snow totals particularly over the North York Moors building up. We could see

Wiltshire, Eleanor Burke, Chris Jones, Spencer Liddicoat, Eddy Robertson) We aim to better constrain estimates of carbon budgets compatible with climate targets such as 2C. One aspect of this is quantify total cumulative anthropogenic emissions in the present day. Through international collaboration

seen the greatest increase by volume. South Yorkshire with a rise of just over 14mm per year has seen the smallest rise by volume. Along with total rainfall the number of days recording 1mm or more of rain a year has also increased by an average of 5.6 days. The largest increases being seen

recorded daily totals of over 200mm during an exceptionally wet spell of weather in late October. Weather patterns were very similar to those seen during the exceptional rainfall of December 2015 and November 2009. Storm Arwen in November saw a Met Office Red weather warning for wind along the north

and rain has also been issued for Northern Ireland from Saturday afternoon through to the early hours of Sunday morning. Gusts could reach up to 65 mph while rainfall totals could reach 40-50 mm over higher ground in the north. Low pressure will drive a wide area of rainfall and gusty winds across the UK

, and south-west Somalia, the areas where precipitation deficit, hydrological drought, and food insecurity overlapped during the 2014 Horn of Africa drought event (FAO 2014; hereafter the “center of drought impact”, CDI; Fig. 17.1). Fig. 17.1. Long rains (Mar–Jun) total precipitation (mm) for 2014

-west Scotland, whereas a swathe from Cornwall all the way up to Aberdeenshire has been rather wet, with some places more than doubling their March average. Of course, a significant proportion of this precipitation fell as snow.   The map below compares monthly rainfall totals with typical March

, 17 and 25. For each start date hindcasts are run for 24 past years from 1993 to 2016. For each year and each start date 7 ensemble members are run. For each start date (e.g. 1 May) there is a total 24 years x 7 members = 168 hindcast ensemble members. The hindcasts can be used to calibrate