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• UK Climate Resilience Programme additional resources

  : Enriching the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to co-create consistent multi-sector scenarios for the UK. Science of the Total Environment. 756, 143172 Zuzana V. Harmáčková, Simona Pedde, James M. Bullock, Ornella Dellaccio, Jennifer Dicks, George Linney, Magnus Merkle, Mark D.A. Rounsevell, Jon Stenning

• Global_Seamless_Modelling_workshop_mittermaier.pptx

  probabilities desirable All ensembles suffer from having finite (limited / few members) Ensemble size can be optimised (see Charlie’s talk) © Crown Copyright 2025 Met Office Total error hides true performance For the control/deterministic solution… Total error Model error Observation error Model bias

• arrcc_carissa_ws4_extreme_ppn_analysis_part_1_case_studies.pdf

  – Areas affected by the 2007 floods across South Asia (from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_South_Asian_floods) The 2007 monsoon season The seasonal total monsoon rainfall was 6% above the long-term average (1961-1990) across the region, but the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall

• 353-369-94.fm

  as a whole receives 70% to 90% of its annual rainfall (Pant and Rupa Kumar, 1997); whereas during the winter monsoon (October-December: shortly referred as OND), the south peninsular of India, particularly the east coast, receives a large amount of rainfall. Total annual rainfall over the whole Indian

• arrcc_carissa_ws4_extreme_ppn_analysis_part_1_case_studiespdf

  – Areas affected by the 2007 floods across South Asia (from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_South_Asian_floods) The 2007 monsoon season The seasonal total monsoon rainfall was 6% above the long-term average (1961-1990) across the region, but the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall

• A spatial analysis of trends in the UK climate since 1914 using gridded datasets

  annual 5-day precipitation total (mm). • Rainfall Intensity (RI) = the average precipitation amount on days with precipitation ≥ 1 mm. All available station data were used, ensuring a dense coverage across the UK of up to 600 stations for temperature and 5500 for rainfall. This enabled a fairly

• Week ahead forecast: Unsettled weather continues as winter sets in

  for early December. Northern Ireland and northern England may see a drier day, but with a chillier start, temperatures here will be around six or seven degrees. READ MORE: November 2025 weather stats: A regional breakdown Rainfall totals and flood risk From Tuesday to Thursday, showers will be most

• weather-climate-change-impacts-on-uk-transport-2021.pdf

  rain in winter and summer and on the wettest days Total rainfall from extremely wet days * has increased by about 17%. The number of days where temperatures do not rise above 0 °C has been decreasing. 4.8 days in 1961–1990, 3.2 days in 2008–2017. 2008–2017 average: -6.8 °C 1961–1990 average: -8.5 °C

• Met Office 10-Day Trend: A repeating pattern of heat and showers

  , Scotland, and Northern Ireland, with totals exceeding 50mm in parts of western Scotland and potentially over 100mm in exposed areas such as the Isle of Skye. A yellow weather warning for rain is now in place for western Scotland from 6am on Friday to 3pm on Saturday.  Weekend weather: North-south divide

• Summer 2025: A regional breakdown

  three others since 1910 recording higher sunshine totals. Despite some wet spells, particularly in western Scotland and northwest England, rainfall overall was below average, and August was especially dry, with the UK receiving just 62% of its average rainfall for the month. READ MORE: August 2025