Meteorological winter has arrived with a notably wet start across the UK
While further rain is expected this week, the most intense downpours are now behind us. A powerful jet stream, fuelled by a sharp temperature contrast over North America, will continue to drive areas of low pressure towards the northwest of the UK.
This dynamic setup brings some uncertainty to the forecast later in the week, but the immediate outlook is for unsettled, showery conditions.
Early week: Showers dominate but the worst is over
Tuesday and Wednesday will see a shift from persistent rain to more showery conditions. Showers will be most frequent in western areas, particularly across parts of western Wales and southern England. Some of these showers may be heavy, with a risk of hail and thunder. Northwestern Scotland will also experience frequent, heavy showers accompanied by brisk, potentially gale-force winds.
Temperatures on Tuesday are expected to be a degree or so lower than Monday. However, with more sunshine and lighter winds in eastern areas, it will feel more pleasant here. In contrast, those under persistent showers in the south and west will find it less comfortable, with temperatures struggling to reach double digits.
Will the first week of December feel more festive?
— Met Office (@metoffice) November 30, 2025
Here's what the weather has in store 👇 pic.twitter.com/l39maElLCH
Midweek: Sunshine, frost, and a brief respite
As we move into Wednesday, the area of low pressure remains, but with fewer features moving through, showers will be less widespread. There will be more sunshine between showers, and clearer skies overnight will lead to a chillier start on Wednesday, with a touch of frost possible in rural parts of the north and east. Western areas, however, will see another damp start.
Showers will be most frequent in western Scotland, where strong winds persist. Some showers may turn to snow as they move inland towards the Grampians. Western Wales and southwestern England will also see some showers, but most areas should enjoy a relatively dry day. Cloud will thicken later as the next weather front approaches, bringing more persistent rain into Thursday. With more sunshine and dry weather, it will feel slightly warmer, though temperatures will remain in single figures for many in the north and east, around average for this time of year.
Thursday: Rain returns with uncertainty
Thursday brings the next weather front, and with it, some uncertainty. A developing wave to the south of the front could mean rain lingers across southeastern areas through Thursday morning, leading to a damp start. Rain will also feed into northern Scotland for much of the day. Behind the front, a drier slot is expected before more showers develop later.
Showers are likely to become frequent again on Thursday after a brief drier spell on Wednesday. Cloud cover will be extensive, with temperatures around nine or ten degrees, typical for early December. Northern Ireland and northern England may see a drier day, but with a chillier start, temperatures here will be around six or seven degrees.
READ MORE: November 2025 weather stats: A regional breakdown
Rainfall totals and flood risk
From Tuesday to Thursday, showers will be most prevalent in western areas, gradually increasing rainfall totals through the week. Most regions will see at least some rain, but the west will bear the brunt. While no single day is expected to bring exceptional rainfall, the already saturated ground, combined with heavy rain earlier in the week, means there is a continued risk of travel disruption and localised flooding. It is important to stay up to date with Met Office warnings as the situation evolves.
Friday and beyond: Model uncertainty and a changeable outlook
As we approach Friday, the forecast becomes more complex. An area of low pressure is expected to drive a weather front by Friday evening, but the behaviour of this system remains uncertain. Two leading forecast models, the ECMWF (European model) and the Met Office model, offer differing scenarios for Saturday. The Met Office model suggests the low pressure will merge with a deeper Atlantic system, creating a shallower area of low pressure by Saturday. In contrast, the ECMWF keeps the deep low to the north and west of the UK.
At this stage, the Met Office favours the scenario with a deeper low to the north and west by the end of Friday. This means Friday itself is likely to be fairly dry, with only a few showers in the southeast and the coldest start to the week so far. There is a risk of widespread fog early on, but also some dry weather.
Looking ahead to the weekend, the next front associated with the deep low-pressure system is expected to arrive on Saturday, bringing further spells of heavy rain. The weather will remain unsettled, with wet and windy conditions persisting. Temperatures will be at or just above average, so frost will be limited.
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