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the long-term climate of a region. And then, most importantly, which of these factors influence the year-to-year variability from that long-term climate. A region’s climate can be classified into different categories, such as tropical or temperate. A location’s climate is largely controlled by factors

Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System – UK (MOGREPS-UK) DESCRIPTION The flagship Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model developed and used at the Met Office, is the Unified Model, the same model is used for both weather and climate prediction. For weather forecasting the Met

time-slices using four different emissions scenarios. • Future developments will include ensuring this information is easily available to the target audience. Climate Change Impacts on Flood Peaks There is some evidence that flood events in Great Britain have already been influenced by climate change

of the century due in part to the background warming as a result of human-induced climate change. It has been shown that climate change is making UK heatwaves more frequent, intense and long-lasting. Met Office Chief Scientist Professor Stephen Belcher said: “In a climate unaffected by human influence

removed from the atmosphere through being absorbed by plants and the oceans.  These natural sinks of carbon vary in strength from year to year due to short-term fluctuations in climate, principally through El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles in the Tropical Pacific Ocean. This means

the recording of consecutive tropical nights in July last year, the Met Office completed an attribution study examining the influence of human induced climate change on the probability of recording consecutive tropical nights in July last year. The scientists found the chance of recording three tropical

, the impacts it has. On a day-to-day basis, the weather has a profound influence on background pollution and the frequency of episodes. Climate change projections are therefore important in shaping our long-term ambitions to reduce the health and environmental impacts of air pollution. UKCP18 provides

You may have seen that Spring 2025 broke historical climate records, marking an unprecedented season of warmth and sunshine across the UK, according to provisional Met Office statistics.

records for the Midlands?  The Midlands, situated at the heart of England, experiences a balanced blend of northern and southern weather influences. In May, the region has recorded a daytime (max) temperature of 18.7°C, set in both 2025 and 2018. This relatively warm figure reflects the Midlands’ inland

in keeping communities safe as the UK continues to see highly variable and, at times, severe weather. The Met Office will continue to invest in forecasting capability and public engagement, ensuring that each named storm helps people prepare, respond, and stay resilient. Read: How do we name storms Watch: Is climate change influencing storms in the UK? 

MOGREPS-UK parameters - 19 May 2019 Description Full Description Units File Pattern Time Steps (Summary) Time Interpretation boundary layer depth “Depth” or “height” of the (atmosphere) planetary boundary layer the part of the atmosphere whose behaviour is directly influenced by its contact