An early look at the winter statistics: just how wet has it been?

From December through to February, the UK has experienced a conveyor belt of low-pressure systems, prolonged rainfall, and little sunshine. As meteorological winter draws to a close, just how exceptional has this winter been?  

Wetter than average, but not record breaking 

Early provisional Met Office statistics show that rainfall so far this winter (up to and including Wednesday 25 February), is tracking 9% above the long-term meteorological average (LTA) for the whole of winter – wet, but nowhere near record-breaking territory.  
 
By nation, the picture is mixed:  

• England = 35% above the winter LTA  

• Northern Ireland = 25% above the winter LTA  

• Wales = 14% above the winter LTA 

• Scotland = 16% below the winter LTA 

While none of these figures approach national winter records, the UK’s rainfall has been far from evenly distributed. Some regions have endured exceptionally wet conditions, while others have been markedly dry – a contrast that becomes clearer at regional level. 

A north/south divide is evident across England, with rainfall totals 13% and 50% above the long-term average respectively. As a result, southern England has currently had its seventh wettest winter since records began in 1836, with 336.1mm of rain so far. This ranking may well change with a few more days to go and rain in the forecast. Southern England’s wettest winter was in 2014, recording 413.3mm of rainfall.  

In Scotland, the contrast is equally marked. Eastern areas have experienced 19% above their seasonal average rainfall, whilst northern areas have seen 34% below. 

Several counties currently rank among their top ten wettest winters on record, as shown by the map below. Dorset and Cornwall have both experienced their second wettest winter already, the Isle of Wight and County Down their third, and Angus, Kincardineshire, Hampshire and City of Aberdeen their fourth. With a few days of meteorological winter still to go, these rankings may yet shift.

Senior Scientist Mike Kendon said: “With only days left of meteorological winter, many people may be surprised that no national rainfall records are expected, despite what has felt like an exceptionally wet season. A near-continuous run of Atlantic systems over the past three months has brought persistent rain, damaging storms and few dry spells. 

“December was wetter than average, January saw near-record rainfall in parts of Northern Ireland and southern England, and by early February, some areas had already exceeded their average monthly totals. Although the past week has been more settled, it looks like this winter will close a very wet one for parts of southern England, remembered for its relentless rain as much as its intensity.” 
 
READ: Why has it been so wet this winter? 

The role of climate change 

While this winter’s weather has been heavily influenced by natural variability and atmospheric patterns, climate change provides important context. 

A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, approximately 7% more for every degree Celsius of warming. This means that when it does rain, downpours can be heavier and more intense. This characteristic is already being observed in the UK and globally, with rainfall totals on the wettest days increasing over recent decades. 

Climate change is also associated with a trend towards wetter winters in the UK. Winters are expected to feature more days with significant rainfall, particularly in western regions. Projections also indicate a greater likelihood of intense winter storms and successive storm events, much like the pattern observed this year. 

Attribution studies across the UK and Europe have linked several record-breaking rainfall events to the influence of human-induced climate change. While no single weather event is caused solely by climate change, the background warming of the atmosphere is loading the dice, making extreme rainfall more likely and making wet winters increasingly common in the long term. 

A succession of storms  

This winter brought impactful storms to the UK - Storm Bram in December, followed by Storm Goretti, Storm Ingrid and Storm Chandra in January - each bringing severe winds, heavy rainfall and widespread disruption across already saturated parts of the UK. 

Above-average temperatures  

Mean temperatures across the UK are tracking above the seasonal average, with England seeing the highest mean temperature at 5.57°C as of the 25th February.  

Winter draws to a close with temperatures above 18°C on 25 February – a contrast to the much cooler temperatures experienced in January.  

READ: Contextualising February’s warm spell: A notably mild end to winter 

Sunshine in short supply 

Sunshine hours have been in short supply this winter, with 80% of the seasonal average seen in the UK so far. Scotland has been particularly dull, and has currently seen just 71% of its average winter sunshine hours – it's fifth dullest winter since 1910 at present.

A very wet and dull February in places too  

Early provisional Met Office statistics (up to and including Wednesday 25 February) show that February has already seen above average rainfall across the UK. While the UK total sits at 8% above the long-term February average, the picture varies significantly by nation: England has been the wettest compared with average at 47% above LTA, whereas Scotland has been notably dry, currently at 26% below its February average.  

Temperatures have also been above average, but sunshine has been in short supply. Up to 25 February, the UK has recorded just 49% of its typical February sunshine, making it a particularly dull month for many areas.  

The Met Office’s full provisional statistics for February and winter will be released on Monday 2 March 2026.  

How do we know when records are broken?   

The answer lies in a Met Office dataset that's been quietly mapping our weather history for around the last two centuries.