The UK’s rail network is a vital part of national infrastructure, connecting communities, supporting the economy, and enabling millions of journeys every day.
But keeping the railways running smoothly is a complex challenge, especially when faced with the variable British weather. The Met Office plays a crucial role in helping the rail sector manage weather-related risks, improve safety, and maintain reliable services.
Understanding the impact of weather on rail operations
Weather can have a profound effect on railway performance. From heavy rainfall and flooding to autumn leaf-fall and extreme heat, adverse conditions can disrupt services, damage infrastructure, and pose safety risks. Poor adhesion, caused by wet or leaf-covered tracks, is a significant issue, costing the rail industry and wider society an estimated £355 million every year. It leads to performance problems, cancellations, and safety incidents, making it essential for rail operators to have accurate, timely information to guide their decisions and mitigation strategies.
Delivering targeted weather prediction and consultancy services
The Met Office provides the rail sector with specialised weather prediction data and consultancy services. One key area is leaf-fall and low adhesion risk prediction, which helps operators anticipate and respond to seasonal challenges. By delivering high-quality forecasts and risk assessments, the Met Office enables rail companies to make informed decisions, optimise their operations, and reduce the impact of adverse conditions.
Over the last 20 years, we’ve worked with a number of train operators during the autumn season to provide leaf-fall and low adhesion prediction services, helping to save money and improve service efficiency.
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Supporting resilience through research and innovation
The Met Office’s partnership with the rail sector goes beyond day-to-day forecasting. In response to the Weather Advisory Task Force (WATF) 2021 report, which reviewed Network Rail’s capability to understand and manage adverse weather, the Met Office has been actively involved in helping the industry become better prepared and more resilient.
This work includes collaborative science, research, and development projects. For instance, the Met Office supported Network Rail in a joint initiative with Newcastle University and Met Desk to launch a Pilot Weather Academy. The academy aims to develop the professional competencies of Network Rail staff, equipping them to better manage risks resulting from adverse weather conditions.
Another area of focus is earthwork failures, which can be triggered by hydrometeorological factors such as heavy rainfall. The Met Office is investigating how different geologies are affected by these criteria, with the goal of supporting the future development of a hazard prediction model. By advancing scientific understanding and modelling capabilities, the Met Office is helping the rail sector anticipate and mitigate risks more effectively.
Driving innovation in decision support
Decision-making in the rail sector is increasingly data-driven. The Met Office has developed a proof of concept demonstrating how high granularity, probabilistic information can facilitate improved decision making. By providing rail operators with detailed, probabilistic forecasts, the Met Office empowers them to assess risks, plan responses, and allocate resources more efficiently.
Expert consultancy and support for investigations
The Met Office’s expertise is also called upon in the aftermath of incidents. The organisation has supported the Rail Accident Investigation Board through expert consultancy, helping to analyse weather-related factors and inform recommendations for future safety improvements.
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Adapting to climate change and future challenges
Climate change presents new and evolving challenges for the rail sector. In 2014, the Met Office was part of a consortium for the Rail Safety and Standards Board’s ‘Tomorrows railway and climate Change adaptation’ (TRaCCA) project. The Met Office led a task on climate analogues for the UK, exploring potential solutions for weather resilience and climate change adaptation for the Great Britain railway. The organisation also contributed to feasibility studies and metrics evaluation, supporting the development of tools to assess vulnerability and guide adaptation strategies.
Following the extreme heat experienced in the summer of 2022, Network Rail established an Extreme Heat Task Force to address the risks posed by rising temperatures. The Met Office supported this task force through scientific expertise and consultancy, drawing on UK Climate Projections (UKCP) data to inform planning and resilience measures.
The Met Office’s work with the rail sector exemplifies its commitment to delivering trusted services when it matters most. Through targeted prediction, expert consultancy, collaborative research, and innovative decision support, the Met Office helps keep the UK’s railways safe, efficient, and resilient.
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