As we step into meteorological summer, the UK’s weather is already showing its familiar variability.
The latest 10-day trend points to a dynamic mix of conditions, with spells of warmth, outbreaks of rain, and shifting pressure patterns, all influenced by the position and behaviour of the jet stream.
A Look Back at Spring
Before diving into the forecast, it’s worth reflecting on the spring just gone. Meteorological spring, March, April, and May, was nothing short of remarkable. With a few days still to go, it will go down as one of the driest, warmest, and sunniest on record, largely due to the jet stream sitting well to the north of the UK. This positioning kept low pressure systems at bay and allowed high pressure to dominate.
However, that pattern has now shifted. The jet stream has dipped further south, opening the door for low pressure systems to move in from the Atlantic. This change has already brought wetter conditions, and it’s this new setup that will influence our weather over the coming days.
READ MORE: What is the jet stream and how does it affect our weather?
Short-Term Outlook: Uncertainty and Showers
In the immediate term, there’s more uncertainty than usual. A low pressure system is expected to move in on Thursday, but its exact path and intensity remain unclear. If it tracks slightly further north, it could bring stronger winds; if it stays on its current course, it will bring rain, particularly to northern and western areas.
By Friday, the Met Office model suggests this low will clear, allowing a ridge of high pressure to build in. This should bring drier conditions to many areas, especially in the south. However, the European model paints a slightly different picture, with another low developing and keeping things wetter across Scotland. This divergence between weather models highlights the short-term uncertainty.
Weekend Warmth for Some
As we move into Friday and Saturday, the jet stream remains active but allows for a draw of warmer air from the southwest. This could bring a taste of summer, particularly to southern and eastern parts of England. Temperatures could reach 24-26°C in the south on Friday, with warmth spreading further north and east by Saturday.
However, not everyone will feel the heat. Western areas, exposed to southwesterly winds, will be cooler and cloudier. Humidity will be on the rise, making it feel warm even where temperatures are lower.
Rainfall will also be unevenly distributed. While parts of the south and east may stay largely dry, another low pressure system is expected to bring showery rain across the country on Sunday. The heaviest rain will likely be in western Scotland, with much lighter amounts reaching the southeast.
READ MORE: How do we know when weather records are broken?
Early Next Week: A Possible Brief Respite
Looking ahead to Monday, there’s a glimmer of hope for a drier day. A small ridge of high pressure could bring settled conditions to many areas, making Monday potentially the driest day of the week. However, this respite may be short-lived.
Out in the Atlantic, more low pressure systems are gathering. The jet stream is expected to dip south again, forming a trough that could allow low pressure to linger near the UK. This setup often leads to slow-moving systems and unsettled weather.
Mid to Late Next Week: Unsettled and Wet
By Tuesday and Wednesday, low pressure is likely to be close to the UK. The exact position remains uncertain, with ensemble models showing a wide spread of possible locations, from northern Scotland to southern England. Regardless of the precise track, the presence of low pressure means rising air, cloud, and showers.
A probability plot extending into the following weekend shows a dominance of dark blues, indicating continued westerly winds and moist air from the Atlantic. This suggests a continuation of showery, unsettled conditions, particularly in western areas.
There may be a slight shift in the pattern towards the end of next week. Some models hint at a ridge of high pressure trying to build in from the south, potentially bringing drier weather to southern parts of the UK. However, this is far from certain.
READ MORE: Met Office Deep Dive: More changing weather on the way
A Changeable Start to Summer
In summary, the next 10 days look changeable. After a brief warm-up this weekend, especially in the south and east, low pressure is set to return, bringing showers and cooler conditions. Western areas will bear the brunt of the rain, while the southeast may escape the worst.
Confidence is higher for the weekend than the short term, but uncertainty returns as we head into next week. While there are hints of drier weather later in the period, the overall theme remains unsettled.
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