As we move through December, the UK’s weather continues to be shaped by a persistent and repetitive pattern.
The latest outlook suggests that this trend will hold firm for the next 10 days, but there are early signs that a shift could occur as we approach Christmas. Here’s a detailed look at what to expect, based on the latest 10-day forecast.
A very active jet stream driving unsettled weather
The dominant feature influencing the UK’s weather is a notably active jet stream stretching across the Atlantic. This powerful ribbon of wind is being fuelled by repeated outbreaks of cold air over eastern Canada and the northeastern United States. As a result, the Atlantic is becoming a breeding ground for areas of low pressure, which are then steered towards the UK.
These low-pressure systems are encountering higher pressure over Europe, causing them to dip southwards before moving north again. This pattern is responsible for the prevailing south-westerly winds, which are bringing frequent spells of rain, particularly to southwestern parts of the UK. The unsettled theme is set to continue through the weekend and into next week.
A bright and dry start to Thursday in the east with patchy cloud
— Met Office (@metoffice) December 10, 2025
Turning cloudier in the west with outbreaks of rain arriving into Northern Ireland pic.twitter.com/yfTqCoZ1BQ
Storm Bram and short-lived respites
Earlier this week, Storm Bram brought a spell of wet and windy weather, but it is now moving away to the north of the UK. In its wake, there will be brief periods of drier weather, although further rain is never far behind. A weather front is expected to push through on Thursday night into Friday morning, possibly lingering across southern and eastern areas. Another short respite is likely on Saturday morning before the next weather front arrives, this time carrying very warm air, a phenomenon known as a “warm conveyor”, which will set up for Saturday and Sunday, bringing further heavy rain.
This wet spell should clear by Sunday afternoon, but yet another area of low pressure is forecast to approach the northwest of the UK. Although smaller in scale, this system could be quite active, with the potential for strong winds and further rain to start the new week.
Mild temperatures and brief cooler spells
Despite the unsettled conditions, temperatures are expected to remain above average for the time of year. Thursday will start very mild, and this theme will persist for much of the day, even in western areas where rain is expected. The rain will be accompanied by blustery winds but should clear eastwards overnight, allowing for a brief cooler spell and the possibility of frost on Friday morning, especially in northwestern regions.
Friday will feel slightly cooler, with lighter winds and plenty of sunshine for many. However, the rain may linger in the south and east before clearing by lunchtime, with some risk of mist and fog. Temperatures will remain above average, and this trend is set to continue throughout the next 10 days.
READ MORE: Storm Bram by numbers: A look into December’s first storm
Weekend rainfall and regional impacts
As the weekend progresses, showers will begin to break out across northwestern areas, but many places will see a dry end to Friday and a dry start to Saturday. The next weather front will move in from the northwest, bringing a spell of very wet weather, particularly to northern and western regions. Rainfall totals are expected to build up through the weekend, with the heaviest accumulations likely across northwestern areas, including the Lake District in Cumbria. These regions should be monitored closely for potential impacts from heavy rainfall, especially over high ground in northwest England and northwest Scotland.
Saturday night is expected to be particularly mild, with overnight temperatures as much as six degrees above average. The mild theme will continue by day as well. Several yellow weather warnings are in place for Saturday and Sunday.
Looking ahead: Uncertainty and signs of change
As we move into the start of next week, another small but potentially active area of low pressure is forecast to move up to the northwest of the UK. There is some uncertainty regarding its exact position and intensity, but it could bring a spell of wet and windy weather, especially to northwestern areas. Most places are likely to experience another unsettled day on Monday.
READ MORE: Understanding long-range forecasts: Science, skill, and application
Beyond Monday, the forecast becomes more uncertain. The latest ensemble model outputs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggest that the unsettled, mild pattern will persist through much of next week. Westerly winds will continue to bring mild air, and low-pressure systems are likely to dominate, particularly to the north and northwest of the UK.
However, as we approach the weekend of the 20th and the days leading up to Christmas, there are signs that higher pressure could begin to build in. This would increase the likelihood of more settled and potentially colder weather, especially if the high pressure becomes centred further north. If this occurs, there is a chance of drier conditions and even the possibility of more frosty nights.
Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.
