Met Office 10-day trend: What to expect from Storm Claudia and beyond

After a spell of milder and at times wetter conditions, the coming days will see a transition to markedly colder air, with the risk of snow for many areas.

Let’s explore the key drivers behind this change and what to expect as we move through the forecast period.

Wind direction and temperature: From southerly to northerly flow

The most significant factor shaping the outlook is a change in wind direction. Early in the period, the UK has been under the influence of a southerly flow, bringing milder air. However, as we progress through the weekend and into next week, forecast models indicate a shift to a more northerly airflow.

This transition will bring a notable drop in temperatures, especially towards the end of the two-week period and into the following week. While there are some uncertainties about the exact wind direction later on, there are tentative signs that temperatures may recover slightly after the coldest spell.

Forecast confidence: High, but with some transitional uncertainty

The forecast confidence index is currently very high, giving good reliability to the outlook for the next several days. However, as we approach Saturday, a transitional day, confidence dips slightly below average, reflecting the inherent uncertainty during periods of change.

Confidence then rises again, remaining significantly above average for much of next week, before dropping well below average as we head towards the end of the period, particularly around Friday and Saturday.

READ MORE: A look back at November's historical weather records

The bigger picture: Jet stream and pressure patterns

The jet stream has been running across the UK, dipping south and then arching back north, bringing changeable and unsettled weather. This pattern is set to continue in the short term, with further spells of wet and windy weather before the colder air arrives.

A deep area of low pressure to the southwest, named Storm Claudia by the Spanish Met Service, is currently bringing hazardous conditions to parts of western Spain, Portugal, and the Canary Islands. For the UK, this system is the driving force behind a frontal system bringing wet weather through Wednesday and into Thursday.

Contrasts north to south

Friday will see an area of low pressure will push north-eastwards, bringing rain to many parts of England and Wales. As a cold front invigorates the rain, heavier rainfall totals are expected, particularly across southern and southeastern Wales. With strong easterly winds, the highest rainfall is likely on east-southeast facing hills.

⚠️⚠️ Amber weather warning issued ⚠️⚠️

Heavy rain across central parts of England and Wales

Friday 1200 – 2359

Latest info 👉 https://t.co/QwDLMfS950

Stay #WeatherAware ⚠️ pic.twitter.com/uFQP9nuVZb

— Met Office (@metoffice) November 13, 2025

Warnings are in place, including amber warnings for heavy rain across central parts of England and Wales where between 50 and 150 millimetres of rain could fall in some areas. While such totals are not unusual on west-facing hills, they are less common on the eastern side, increasing the risk of significant impacts. A yellow warning is also in place for rain for central and southern England, as well as two yellow wind warnings for northwest Wales and northwest England and the west midlands. The north will remain largely dry, but the south will experience unsettled, windy, and wet conditions.

The weekend: High pressure and a plunge of Arctic air

As we move into the weekend, high pressure will build from Greenland, pushing south towards the Azores. This will bring drier weather for many but also allow a real change in wind direction. The cold Arctic air, initially confined to the north, will spread southwards across the UK, causing temperatures to plummet.

By Saturday and Sunday, temperatures across the southern half of the UK, previously well above average, will drop to around or even below average, while the north remains chilly. By Monday, the Arctic air will have spread countrywide, with temperatures several degrees below the seasonal norm.

Next week: Drier, colder, and a risk of snow

Looking further ahead, high pressure is likely to remain towards the west of the UK, maintaining a cold northerly flow. This setup will bring largely dry weather, especially in the west, but allow for showers to move down the east coast. The main talking point will be the wind direction, which continues to funnel cold air across the country.

READ MORE: Understanding ensemble forecasting: How the Met Office predicts uncertainty

There is also the potential for a weather system to move south from Iceland, bringing rain to the east and, on its northern edge, the risk of sleet or snow, particularly over hills and mountains in Scotland, Northern Ireland, northern England, and possibly North Wales.

Snow and wintry hazards: Where and when?

The probability of snow increases as we move through the period. While Wednesday and Thursday will see only a few wintry showers over Scottish hills, Friday’s wet weather in the south could bring wintry conditions to the hills of northwest Wales. By Sunday and Monday, as colder air digs in, there is a reasonable chance of sleet and snow in northern Scotland, with the risk spreading further south into Northern Ireland, northern England, and North Wales by Tuesday. The middle and end of next week could see a more widespread wintry spell if a weather system moves south, with some models suggesting a 20% or greater chance of more than 1 cm of snow even in southern parts of the country. Alongside snow, there is also a risk of ice, especially where rain falls onto cold surfaces.

A marked change from recent weeks

This 10-day trend marks a significant departure from the exceptionally mild conditions experienced through much of November. The transition to colder, wintrier weather will be felt across the country, with temperatures dropping from several degrees above average to several degrees below. While there is some uncertainty towards the end of the period, the overall message is clear: prepare for a much colder and potentially wintry spell, with the risk of disruptive rain, snow, and ice in places.

With warnings in place for heavy rain and strong winds, especially in the south, and the potential for snow and ice further north, it’s important to stay up to date with the latest forecasts and advisories. The situation is likely to evolve, and updates will be issued as confidence increases or hazards become more certain.

Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.