As we move through early November, the UK is experiencing a notably mild spell, with temperatures well above the seasonal average.
However, the latest 10-day trend from the Met Office suggests that this period of relative calm and warmth is set to give way to more unsettled and changeable conditions as we head into the new working week.
Jet stream patterns shaping the outlook
The current weather pattern is being driven by a particularly wavy jet stream across the Atlantic. This has resulted in a series of dips and troughs, with one extending down towards Iberia. Over the next few days, this trough is expected to become even more pronounced, keeping low pressure anchored to the south and drifting up towards the UK as we approach the weekend.
As the weekend progresses, another dip in the jet stream is forecast, leading to a broader trough sitting out in the Atlantic. This weakening and amplifying jet stream is a key factor in the slow-moving weather patterns expected next week, setting up a contest between low pressure to the west and high pressure to the east of the UK.
Temperatures remain above average
One of the most notable features of the current spell is the unseasonably mild temperatures. Highs on Thursday are expected to reach the mid to high teens Celsius, with some locations seeing 15, 16, or even 17°C. These values are around six or seven degrees above the average for this time of year.
Bonfire Night 2025 was record breaking 🎆
— Met Office (@metoffice) November 6, 2025
Temperatures overnight only dropped to 14.4℃ at Teddington in London, provisionally making it the mildest Bonfire Night on record
The previous record for the night of 5th-6th November was 13.9℃ at Gordon Castle, Scotland, in 1938 pic.twitter.com/M4TlKlOmoa
This mild air is being drawn up from the south, both at high and low levels in the atmosphere, thanks to the positioning of the jet stream and associated low pressure systems. While a gradual cooling is expected as we move through the weekend, temperatures are forecast to remain above average for mid-November. Even as weather fronts bring outbreaks of rain and a shift to a more westerly breeze, the air will still be coming from a relatively warm Atlantic, so any drop in temperature will be modest.
Rainfall and regional contrasts
As we head into the weekend, weather fronts will begin to move in, bringing outbreaks of rain and slowly changing the wind direction. The southerly winds will give way to westerlies, but this is not expected to bring a significant chill. Instead, temperatures will drop by just three or four degrees Celsius, returning closer to the seasonal average but still remaining mild for many.
Rainfall will be most prevalent in western areas, with showers expected in western Scotland, Northern Ireland, and parts of Wales. Another weather system is likely to bring a band of rain in from the west during Sunday, although there is some uncertainty about the exact timing. These weather fronts can develop waves, which may slow down the rain and intensify it in places, leading to heavier pulses, particularly in the west.
Central and eastern parts of Britain are likely to remain largely dry and mild through the weekend, with the west-east split in rainfall continuing. The position of the weather fronts as we move into the new working week remains uncertain, but the overall trend is for unsettled conditions to persist.
Looking ahead: Next week’s pressure patterns
By Monday, the most likely scenario is for low pressure to sit to the west of the UK and higher pressure to the east, with winds continuing to come from the south or southeast. This will help to maintain the mild conditions, although rainfall anomalies suggest that western areas could see more rain than usual for this time of year.
READ MORE: How the Met Office uses data assimilation to produce its forecasts
As we move into Tuesday and beyond, the pressure pattern is expected to shift slightly, with low pressure being reinvigorated by another dip in the jet stream. This could bring the low closer to the UK and increase its intensity, with a hint of an easterly breeze developing. However, this is not expected to bring a sharp drop in temperatures, as the North Sea and near continent are not particularly cold at present. Instead, temperatures will likely return closer to average.
Uncertainty and the role of high pressure
Probability plots for next week suggest that high pressure across Scandinavia will dominate through the weekend, but as the week progresses, higher pressure to the north of the UK becomes more likely. This does not guarantee dry weather, as recent computer model runs indicate that the low to the southwest could become more dominant, pushing further rain into southern and western areas.
The key uncertainty is whether this low will push further north or if higher pressure will build in from the north. This could shift the division from an east-west split to a more south-north split, but with low pressure to the southwest, further outbreaks of rain are likely, especially in southern and western parts of the UK.
In summary, the latest 10-day trend points to a continuation of mild conditions, with temperatures remaining above average for the time of year. However, the weather is set to become more unsettled, with rain most likely in western and southern areas. The slow-moving nature of the weather patterns, driven by a weak and wavy jet stream, means that uncertainty remains high, particularly regarding the extent and timing of rainfall. The wettest conditions are expected in southern and western parts of the UK, especially through the second half of next week.
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