The latest 10-day weather trend for the UK is, on the surface, a fairly simple one: the weather is not expected to change dramatically.
However, as is often the case with British weather, the day-to-day detail can be tricky, and small shifts can lead to significant differences in local conditions. This week, the main story is high pressure; its position, movement, and the subtle but important effects it brings.
High pressure dominates: What it means for the UK
The reason for the lack of dramatic change is, as many will have guessed, the presence of high pressure. Initially, this high-pressure system is sitting out to the west of the UK, but as the week progresses, it will slowly edge eastwards. By the weekend, it is expected to become mostly straddled across the UK, bringing predominantly dry and settled conditions.
This is a marked contrast to last weekend, when Storm Amy swept through, bringing unsettled weather. In the coming days, most areas can expect a mix of cloud and sunny spells, with high pressure continuing to push eastwards into next week. As it does so, the winds around the high will shift in a clockwise direction, leading to subtle changes in wind direction and, consequently, in local weather patterns.
What a difference a week makes!
— Met Office (@metoffice) October 8, 2025
This time last week we were watching Storm Amy heading towards the UK 🌬️
Fast forward to now and high pressure is taking charge for the end of the week and weekend giving a largely settled outlook 🌥️ pic.twitter.com/LoG44KfbxG
The impact of wind direction and cloud breaks
One of the key challenges in forecasting under high pressure is the impact of wind direction. As the high moves, the source of our winds changes, which in turn affects where cloud forms, where it breaks, and where we might see clearer skies. Where breaks in the cloud coincide with light winds, there is potential for mist, fog, and even some frost, especially as we move into next week.
A chilly start for some, drizzle for others
Looking at the immediate forecast, tomorrow could bring a chilly start for some, particularly across the south where breaks in the cloud are more likely. Elsewhere, expect a grey and gloomy start, with plenty of cloud in the skies.
This cloud will be thick enough in places, especially Northern Ireland, southwestern Scotland, and northwest England, to produce some drizzle, particularly over hilly areas. However, most places will remain dry, with a mix of clouds and occasional brighter interludes. Temperatures will be around average for the time of year, typically 18 to 19°C, and where sunnier spells do occur, it should feel rather pleasant.
End of the week: Persistent cloud and improving conditions
As we move into the end of the week, the cloud and drizzle will linger for some, especially across western Scotland, where a constant feed of moisture from the west persists. Northern Ireland, northern England, and parts of Wales will also see a fair amount of cloud, thick enough at times to produce drizzle overnight. However, elsewhere, clearer spells are likely, particularly in the east. Where skies remain clear for longer, mist and fog could form by morning.
READ MORE: Met Office Deep Dive: A week after Storm Amy and high-pressure is here
For most, it will be a grey start with plenty of cloud, keeping temperatures from dropping too low, a fairly mild start for the end of the week. As the day progresses, the picture will improve, with more breaks in the cloud developing, especially towards the afternoon. The south may hold onto cloudier skies for longer, and the north of Wales could see thicker cloud and drizzle at times. Temperatures will remain similar, with highs around 18 to 19°C.
Evenings and the approach of autumn
As we head into the evenings, clear skies will become more common. As soon as the sun sets, temperatures will drop quickly, and mist and fog could form by morning. The loss of sunlight becomes more noticeable through October, with around two hours less daylight by the end of the month compared to the start. In northern areas, the reduction is even greater, up to two hours and forty minutes less daylight in parts of Scotland. As the nights draw in, clear skies will mean temperatures dip away more sharply.
The weekend: Settled, but with local variation
Looking ahead to the coming weekend, high pressure will once again be the dominant feature, shifting eastward and maintaining dry, settled conditions. There will be a mix of cloud and clear skies, and through the morning, mist and fog may form but should clear fairly quickly.
Saturday is shaping up to be a pleasant day for most, with some cloudy areas but also a good chance of brighter, sunny spells. Northern Scotland may see more cloud and occasional drizzle, but for the bulk of the country, it will be a fine start to the weekend. Temperatures will remain steady, with highs of 17 to 18°C, and even eastern Scotland should see some sunshine.
Fog risk and localised impacts
Over the weekend, mist and fog are likely to develop overnight, particularly where breaks in the cloud occur. The Met Office ensemble model highlights areas with a higher chance of thick fog, visibility below 200 metres, including western and central Scotland, parts of Wales, and the southwest. These areas are most at risk on Saturday morning, but the situation may change, so it is worth keeping an eye on the latest forecasts.
On Sunday, the risk of fog increases in some areas, with western Scotland, Wales, Shropshire, Gloucestershire, Northern Ireland, and parts of Yorkshire all highlighted. In reality, fog could form almost anywhere if clear skies persist overnight. These areas are where the probability of travel disruption due to fog is highest, but with the sun now strong enough to clear fog quickly, any impacts should be short-lived.
READ MORE: The UK land observation network: Underpinning weather and climate understanding
Sunday will likely be similar to Saturday, with a mix of cloud and sunny spells, a slight drop in temperatures to 15 to 16°C, but still around average for the time of year.
Next week: High pressure remains, but confidence lowers later
As we move into next week, high pressure continues to dominate. Probability plots show a strong signal for high pressure, with reds and dark reds indicating its persistence over the UK for the next 10 days and possibly beyond. However, the exact position of the high is crucial. If it sits to the east, we may see more of an east-southeasterly wind, bringing moisture from the North Sea and increasing cloud cover in eastern Scotland, while the west could see more breaks. If the high shifts slightly further south, a more southeasterly wind would bring drier air from the continent, reducing cloud and increasing sunshine, especially by Wednesday.
Forecast confidence and the potential for change
For the first couple of weeks of October, confidence is high that high pressure will remain the dominant force. However, as we approach the later half of October, confidence begins to lower. At this point, there is a chance that high pressure will drift eastwards, allowing more frontal systems to push in from the west. This would bring a change to more unsettled conditions, with the potential for rain to return.
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