The week ahead promises a classic mix of seasonal weather across the UK.
From chilly mornings and fog patches to spells of sunshine, followed by a turn to wetter and windier conditions, the coming days will showcase the full spectrum of autumn’s character. Here’s what to expect, day by day, with a closer look at the atmospheric drivers shaping our weather.
A quiet start: High pressure and chilly mornings
The week begins under the influence of high pressure, particularly across southern parts of the UK. This setup brings settled conditions for many, with light winds and clear skies overnight allowing temperatures to dip. Early risers will notice a touch of frost in rural areas and the potential for fog patches, especially in sheltered spots. These are the hallmarks of autumn’s quieter side, and while the fog may linger for a time, it should clear as the morning progresses.
By Tuesday, high pressure remains in charge across the south, albeit in a weakened state. Weather fronts associated with a feeble jet stream will brush northern and western areas, bringing more cloud and some patchy rain to Scotland and Northern Ireland. Northern England and parts of Wales may see the odd shower, but for most of England, Tuesday looks dry with the chance of early fog. Winds will be light in the south but begin to strengthen further north as weather fronts approach.
Temperatures will start on the chilly side, but with some sunshine breaking through in the southeast, values could reach 20°C in places, with most areas in the high teens.
Midweek: Rain and wind on the rise
As we move into Tuesday night and Wednesday, the weather begins to change. A new batch of rain arrives from the west, associated with a strengthening jet stream and tightening isobars. This marks the start of a more unsettled spell, with rain setting in across western areas and persisting through much of Wednesday and into Thursday.
As we move into October, are there signs of stormy weather on the way or can you expect the September sunshine to continue?
— Met Office (@metoffice) September 28, 2025
Here are the weather details for the up coming week 👇 pic.twitter.com/w2GUUjFj5M
Northern Ireland will see a wet start on Wednesday, though conditions should improve later in the day. Western Scotland, however, will remain under persistent rain, with the northeast of Scotland staying relatively sheltered and potentially seeing a jump in temperatures. Further south, most places will remain dry and bright, though fog is again possible in the mornings, followed by hazy sunshine and quite a bit of cloud. While clear blue skies may be elusive, there should be enough brightness to lift temperatures to around 20°C in some spots.
The rain continues into Wednesday night, with weather fronts stalling against high pressure and wriggling across western Scotland. This is a key area of concern, as rainfall totals begin to mount.
Flood risk for western Scotland
The greatest cause for concern through the middle of the week is the potential for significant rainfall accumulations in western Scotland. With weather fronts repeatedly moving in and stalling, rainfall totals could easily reach 50 to 75 millimetres widely, with much higher amounts, possibly up to 250 millimetres, over the hills. This volume of rain, falling on already saturated ground, raises the risk of localised flooding, especially in mountainous areas.
The Met Office has issued a yellow warning for rain in these areas, and anyone travelling across western Scotland later in the week is advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts and allow extra time for journeys.
A spell of very wet weather is on the way for western Scotland later in the week 🌧️
— Met Office (@metoffice) September 29, 2025
The persistent rain may lead to transport disruption and flooding, so stay up to date if you have travel plans in this area ⚠️ pic.twitter.com/gZh5CFJfEt
Thursday and Friday: Drier spells for some, but uncertainty remains
By Thursday, the rain continues for western Scotland, while Northern Ireland may see a drier day after a wet start. Elsewhere, England and Wales will enjoy a good deal of dry and bright weather, with hazy sunshine pushing temperatures into the low 20s. Winds will be picking up everywhere by this stage, making it a breezier day across eastern parts.
However, the rain is not finished yet. As we head into Friday, a weather front sinks southwards, bringing rain to parts of England and Wales. There is some uncertainty about the timing of this clearance, and while Scotland may see a drier day, showers are still possible in the west. Temperatures will remain in the high teens, but it may not feel as warm due to the increasing cloud and rain, especially across southern areas.
Looking further ahead: Tropical influences and model uncertainty
The end of the week and the weekend bring further complexity to the forecast. A swirl of low pressure is set to approach the UK, but its origins lie far to the west, across the Atlantic and into the tropics. At present, there are two tropical cyclones in play, Hurricane Humberto, which was a category 5 storm over the weekend but has since weakened, and another system that is intensifying and may become a hurricane as it moves northwards.
These systems are expected to interact, a scenario that always raises a flag for meteorologists due to the potential for unpredictable developments. As these tropical systems move north, one in particular is forecast to undergo extratropical transition, potentially developing into a new area of low pressure. How this process unfolds, and whether a new low forms ahead of it, is an area of close scrutiny for forecasters.
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This developing low is expected to be picked up by the jet stream and steered towards the UK, possibly bringing tropical air with it. However, it will not be the same intense system it was over the tropics. The key question is the exact track of this low as it approaches the UK, and this remains uncertain at this stage.
Model guidance: A range of possible outcomes
Forecast models offer differing solutions for the weekend. The Met Office model projects the low to be in the North Sea by midday on Saturday, while the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) takes the low much further north, away from the main body of the UK. Both scenarios would bring wet and windy conditions to some areas, but the details differ significantly.
To account for this uncertainty, meteorologists run ensembles, multiple simulations with slightly different starting conditions. The European model ensemble shows a range of possible tracks, with many taking the low between the UK and Iceland, and fewer bringing it directly across the UK. This means there is still a chance of a more direct hit, but it is not the most likely outcome at present.
What this means for the UK
If the low tracks across the UK, we could see very wet and very windy weather for much of the country. If it takes a more northerly route, the worst of the conditions would be confined to northwestern areas, with southern and eastern parts seeing just a few showers and some sunshine. The difference between these scenarios is subtle but significant, and highlights the complexity of forecasting at this range.
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With so many moving parts in the atmosphere, and the added influence of tropical systems, the forecast for the end of the week and the weekend is subject to change. The main message is to stay up to date with the latest Met Office forecasts, especially if you have plans that could be affected by wet and windy weather.
The week ahead will see a transition from settled, chilly mornings to increasingly unsettled conditions, with rain and wind on the rise, particularly in the north and west. Flooding is a concern for western Scotland, while the rest of the UK will see a mix of dry, bright spells and occasional rain. The weekend brings further uncertainty, with the potential for tropical influences to play a role in our weather.
Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.
