After several days of fine, settled weather under the influence of high pressure, the UK faces a more complicated outlook for the upcoming weekend.
While many have enjoyed calm and sunny conditions, a shift in the weather pattern is set to bring a mix of rain, wind, and uncertainty to different parts of the country.
High pressure moves east as Hurricane Gabrielle approaches the Azores
Hurricane Gabrielle is currently passing over the Azores, bringing the potential for significant impacts from strong winds and large waves to that region. Shortly after reaching the Azores, Gabrielle is expected to transition into a typical mid-latitude low, often referred to as an ex-hurricane, before heading towards Iberia as a decaying system.
A recent wind gust of 96 mph was recorded on Ilha do Faial as Post-Tropical Cyclone #Gabrielle passes directly over the #Azores. pic.twitter.com/W43Xq021IS
— Met Office Storms (@metofficestorms) September 26, 2025
It is important to note that this ex-hurricane will not move into the UK or come anywhere close. However, its presence will have an indirect effect on our weather. The interplay between the ex-hurricane, a weather front to the north, and the high pressure to the east will create a more complex and less predictable scenario for the UK.
Saturday: A breezy, mild start with rain in the west
Saturday begins with the lingering influence of high pressure, especially in the east of the country. Many areas will see sunny spells from the outset, but an increasing breeze from the south will be noticeable. This southerly wind means it will not be as chilly first thing on Saturday as it has been on previous mornings this week.
However, the west will see a different story. Rain is expected to affect western Scotland and Northern Ireland from early on, gradually spreading into the rest of Scotland, as well as parts of western England and Wales. Some patchy rain may also reach southern areas, but the heaviest and most persistent rain will be towards the north-west, where 30 to 50 millimetres could fall in places, making for unpleasant conditions.
Two yellow weather warnings have been issued. The first is for rain in eastern Northern Ireland between 7am and 7pm on Saturday. The second is for rain in western Scotland between 8am and 11:59pm, also on Saturday.
Despite the rain in the north and west, the south and south-east are likely to enjoy a mild afternoon, with temperatures reaching 18°C or 19°C.
⚠️ Yellow weather warnings issued ⚠️
— Met Office (@metoffice) September 26, 2025
Rain in eastern Northern Ireland between 0700 and 1900 on Saturday
Rain in western Scotland between 0800 and 2359 on Saturday
Latest info 👉 https://t.co/QwDLMfRBfs
Stay #WeatherAware⚠️ pic.twitter.com/6vMv3BLYqz
Weather front slows as high pressure builds over Scandinavia
By Saturday, the weather front bringing rain to the UK will begin to slow down. This is due to the high-pressure system that has dominated the UK throughout the week moving eastwards and establishing itself over Scandinavia. This high acts like a boulder in a stream, effectively splitting the jet stream in two and causing it to dip southwards as it approaches the UK.
Ex-hurricane Gabrielle, now a mid-latitude low, will also tug on the jet stream, adding to the complexity. The interaction between the ex-hurricane, the high pressure to the east, and the southward-diving jet stream introduces a degree of uncertainty to the forecast, particularly as we move into Sunday.
Sunday: Uncertainty and the risk of more widespread rain
The main uncertainty for Sunday revolves around how far south the jet stream will dive. If it is pulled further south by the ex-hurricane and the dominant high to the east, the weather front could slow down even more and become more active as it crosses the south and east of the UK.
A minority of computer model simulations suggest that an area of low pressure could form across the east and south of the UK, leading to more widespread and heavy rain in these areas. However, this is not the most likely scenario. The majority of simulations indicate that the rain band will slowly and erratically clear the east of England, with some heavy bursts possible across East Anglia during Sunday afternoon. Elsewhere, brighter spells are expected, although showers may continue for Scotland, Northern Ireland, western England, and Wales.
READ MORE: Met Office 10-day trend: A tale of two halves for September
Temperatures are likely to reach the mid to high teens across much of the country, but if the front persists for longer, the south and east could see a more widespread wet day and lower temperatures as a result.
High pressure returns for the end of September
As we move into next week, confidence in the forecast increases. High pressure is expected to re-establish itself, particularly across the south of the UK. While some weather fronts may still affect the north and north-west of Scotland from time to time, most areas will see a return to more settled conditions for the final days of September.
After a very unsettled first half of the month, the second half of September is shaping up to be much drier and brighter, with the exception of this weekend’s blip as a slow-moving front crosses the country.
In summary, the weekend brings a more complicated weather picture for the UK, with rain and unsettled conditions in the west and north, and milder, breezier weather in the south and east. The interplay between high pressure, an ex-hurricane, and the jet stream introduces uncertainty, especially for Sunday. However, the outlook for the final days of September is for a return to drier, brighter weather as high pressure builds once again.
Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.
