September has been a month of contrasts across the UK, with the weather delivering a tale of two halves.
The start of the month was unsettled, bringing plenty of wet weather and changeable conditions. However, as we moved further into September, the pattern shifted dramatically, with much drier and calmer conditions taking hold. This shift sets the scene for the next 10 days, with high pressure expected to dominate and bring settled weather for much of the country.
A shift to high pressure
Currently, the jet stream is meandering to the north of the UK, and this has allowed high pressure to build. High pressure has been the dominant feature through much of this week and is set to continue as we head towards the end of the week, although it will gradually shift a little further east.
Friday is expected to be another largely fine day, although there may be more cloud coming in from the east, which could bring a few spots of rain or showers. Western areas, however, should continue to see a good deal of sunny weather.
A fine afternoon with plenty of autumnal sunshine 🌤️
— Met Office (@metoffice) September 25, 2025
Breezy in the southeast and far northwest of the UK 🍂 pic.twitter.com/5kK91vsnlO
A look ahead to the weekend
While settled conditions are expected to continue into Friday, it is worth highlighting a frontal system, a band of rain, out towards the west of the UK. This is set to move across the country as we go through the weekend. When considering the latest forecast, it is always important to look at what is happening on the other side of the Atlantic, and this week is no exception.
Hurricane Gabrielle, which was a major hurricane, is currently tracking eastwards towards Europe. It is likely to take a southern track, heading towards the Azores, which have a hurricane warning in place into Friday due to the risk of heavy rain and very strong winds. Gabrielle is then expected to decay into an ex-tropical storm as it tracks further eastwards towards the Bay of Biscay. Although Gabrielle is relatively far from the UK, it can still influence our weather, as we have seen in the past.
Uncertainties for the weekend
There are some uncertainties about what will happen through the weekend. The front highlighted earlier is expected to come closer and push in as we go through Saturday. The raw Met Office model indicates a small area of low pressure developing just to the northwest of the UK. If this occurs, it could bring a wraparound of rain and some strong, gusty winds towards the northwest. However, many other models do not show this separate low feature developing and instead suggest a band of rain moving from north to south, pushing eastwards across the country.
READ MORE: Met Office Deep Dive: A look into Hurricane season
Whether or not we see blustery winds towards the northwest remains uncertain, but there is confidence that a band of rain will push through. This rain is expected to move eastwards across the country on Saturday, clearing sometime on Sunday. However, there is uncertainty about exactly how quickly it will clear, due in part to the remnants of Hurricane Gabrielle.
The Met Office model shows Gabrielle decaying near the Bay of Biscay and edging a little further southwards, but some forecast tracks suggest it could move further north. If this happens, it could interfere with the front moving across the UK, causing it to stall and linger, particularly across eastern, southeastern, and southern parts of the country.
Details for Saturday and Sunday
On Saturday, a band of rain will push through from west to east, with some heavy bursts possible, 20 to 40 mm in the wettest places, such as western higher ground. The rain is likely to clear away, and while there could be stronger winds towards the northwest, they are not expected to be especially strong.
By Sunday, apart from a few showers, conditions look largely fine. However, there is a reasonable chance that cloud and rain could linger across some eastern and southeastern parts if Gabrielle tracks a little further northwards. The detail for Sunday remains uncertain, and while the band of rain will clear through at some point, it may take longer than the model suggests.
Looking further ahead: High pressure returns
Looking beyond the weekend, the 10-day trend points to high pressure building behind the departing band of rain. This high pressure is likely to dominate once again, bringing more settled conditions. The second half of September as a whole looks set to be more settled, and this is expected to continue once the rain pushes through this weekend.
READ MORE: Seeing the bigger picture: How satellite data shapes Met Office forecasts
Somewhere towards the northeast of the UK looks quite likely to be the centre of high pressure. The second and third most likely setups for next Monday are similar, with high pressure remaining the dominant story. If this scenario plays out, it will be drier than average, with more fine and settled weather. However, it is worth bearing in mind that the front could still be lingering as we go into Monday, so the progress of high-pressure building may be slow.
Midweek and beyond: Persistent high pressure
As we move through next week, Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to see high pressure remaining dominant. Even the third most likely outcome for Wednesday, which has only a 10% chance, involves lower pressure closer to the UK, more towards the northwest, but high pressure is still the most likely setup. This theme continues through Thursday and Friday, with high pressure nearby, particularly towards the northeast of the UK.
If high pressure does dominate, several things can be expected. It will be drier than average, with plenty of fine weather, and temperatures should start to lift a little due to the direction of the air flow. Around high pressure, winds move in a clockwise direction, so air will be drawn in from the near continent, which at this time of year is slightly less chilly than air coming from the north.
Supporting evidence from anomaly charts
Anomaly charts from the ECMWF support this outlook. For the week from Monday 29 September to Monday 6 October, the charts indicate that higher than average pressure is more likely, especially towards the northeast of the UK. The high is expected to be centred somewhere towards Scandinavia, but across the UK as a whole, pressure is likely to be higher than average. With this setup, it is no surprise that rainfall anomaly charts show it will be markedly drier than average as well.
READ MORE: Rainfall in the first half of September: A wet start, but the deficit remains
Temperature trends and local detail
Through much of next week, after a brief spell of wetter weather over the weekend, more dry weather is expected. Recent nights have been chilly, with high pressure, calm winds, and clear skies providing perfect conditions for temperatures to drop. This pattern is expected to continue, with minimum temperatures generally closer to average, not much above, and perhaps even a little below at times.
Maximum temperatures have been hovering around or just below average and will continue to do so through the end of this week. As the position of high-pressure changes, daytime highs are expected to be around or a little above average, especially when sunshine is present. By night, clear skies will still allow temperatures to dip, so chilly nights and the possibility of frost remain, but overall, the air will be a little warmer and milder than it is at present.
In summary, the Met Office 10-day trend forecast points to a settled end to September, with high pressure dominating and bringing dry, fine weather for much of the UK. While there are uncertainties around the timing and clearance of rain over the weekend, the overall outlook is for more settled conditions to return, with temperatures lifting slightly and rainfall remaining below average.
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