Sixty years ago, the Met Office embarked on a journey that would transform weather forecasting in the United Kingdom and around the world.
The adoption of numerical weather prediction (NWP) in 1965 marked a turning point, ushering in an era of scientific advancement, technological innovation and ever-improving forecast accuracy. As we celebrate the 60th anniversary of NWP, we reflect on the remarkable progress made and look ahead to an exciting future.
From early experiments to operational forecasts
The story of NWP at the Met Office begins in the early 1950s, when pioneering scientists such as Fred H. Bushby and Mavis K. Hinds, under the guidance of John S. Sawyer, conducted the first experimental forecasts using the EDSAC computer at Cambridge. These early efforts, though limited by the technology of the time, laid the groundwork for what was to come. By 1959, the installation of the Ferranti Mercury computer, known as ‘Meteor’, at Dunstable marked a significant milestone, providing the first computer dedicated to NWP research.
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The real breakthrough came in 1965 with the arrival of the English Electric KDF9 computer, ‘Comet’, at Bracknell. On 2 November 1965, the Met Office produced its first operational computer forecast, a moment that received widespread media attention and signalled the start of a new era in weather prediction.
Advancing science and technology
The following decades saw rapid progress. In the 1970s, the global exchange of weather observations was revolutionised by the World Meteorological Organisation’s Global Telecommunications System, and the Met Office played a central role as a hub on the Main Trunk Network. The introduction of the IBM 360/195 computer in 1971 brought greater speed and memory, while the development of the 10-level Bushby–Timpson model in 1972 enabled more sophisticated forecasts, including the prediction of rainfall from fronts.
The 1980s were marked by further innovation. The implementation of a 15-level NWP model in 1982 provided global capability, supporting military operations and research. In 1985, the Met Office became the first in the world to use a non-hydrostatic, convection-permitting model operationally, allowing for more accurate forecasts of local weather phenomena such as sea breezes and fog.
The response to the Chernobyl disaster in 1986 led to the development of the NAME dispersion modelling system, which has since been used to model a wide range of hazards, from volcanic eruptions to disease outbreaks.
The unified model and the era of high-resolution forecasting
A major leap forward came in 1990 with the introduction of the Unified Model, a numerical model of the atmosphere used for both weather and climate applications. This model, continuously developed and refined, has enabled the Met Office to run both global and limited area forecasts, as well as long-range climate simulations. Over the years, horizontal resolution has improved dramatically, from 90 km in 1991 to just 10 km in 2017, and data assimilation techniques have become ever more sophisticated.
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The late 1990s and early 2000s saw the advent of site-specific forecasts, the launch of mobile weather services, and the successful relocation of the Met Office’s supercomputers from Bracknell to Exeter without missing a single forecast. The implementation of ensemble forecasting systems, such as MOGREPS, and the introduction of the UKV convection-permitting model in 2010, have further enhanced the ability to predict high-impact weather events, from convective storms to disruptive snow.
Supercomputing power and the cloud
The Met Office’s commitment to harnessing the latest technology is exemplified by its investment in supercomputing. The arrival of the Cray XC40 supercomputer in 2015, with its 460,000 cores and 16 petaflops of performance, enabled even higher resolution forecasts and more detailed climate simulations.
In 2025, the transition to a Microsoft-operated, cloud-based supercomputer marked another world first, a fully managed ‘supercomputing-as-a-service’ model. The new supercomputer is offers greater flexibility and capacity for the challenges ahead.
Impact and future directions
The benefits of NWP are clear. Accurate forecasts save lives and livelihoods, inform government and public decisions, and help the UK become more resilient to natural hazards. The Met Office’s National Severe Weather Warning Service, international collaborations, and ongoing research ensure that the UK remains at the forefront of weather and climate science.
As we look to the future, the Met Office’s partnership with Microsoft and continued investment in research and technology promise even greater advances. With the ability to process more data, run higher resolution models, and deliver more detailed and timely forecasts, the Met Office is well placed to meet the challenges of a changing climate and an increasingly complex world.
Sixty years on from that first operational forecast, numerical weather prediction remains at the heart of everything the Met Office does, a testament to the vision, dedication and innovation of generations of scientists, engineers and forecasters.
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