The headline for the next 10 days is that high pressure will become increasingly influential across the UK, bringing many areas a spell of largely dry weather, sunshine by day and colder nights.
The next 10 days are expected to bring a transition from wet and windy conditions to a more settled spell of autumn weather, with high pressure likely to dominate for much of next week. However, there are signs that Atlantic weather systems could begin to return later in the period, bringing increasing chances of rain.
While confidence is relatively high for the weekend and the start of next week, uncertainty increases later in the period as forecasters monitor a developing area of low pressure to the southwest of the UK and the eventual return of Atlantic weather systems.
A windy and wet interlude before conditions settle
An unusually deep area of low pressure tracking towards Iceland will bring strong winds and a spell of rain to parts of western Scotland and Northern Ireland. Although the storm system remains well away from the UK, associated weather fronts will affect northern areas through Thursday.
The cold front will move only slowly southwards, bringing periods of rain across Scotland, Northern Ireland, northern England and Wales. Ahead of the front, some warm October sunshine will allow temperatures to climb to between 20°C and 23°C across southeast England, making it feel mild for the time of year.
Behind the front, conditions will turn fresher, with showers developing. Some of these could be heavy, particularly in northern Scotland and Northern Ireland, where there is a chance of hail, thunder and gusty winds.
Cooler air arrives on Friday
By Friday, the cold front will have cleared southeast England and a cooler air mass will spread across the UK on north to north-westerly winds. Many places will see a mixture of sunshine and showers, with temperatures generally returning closer to average for mid-October.
Daytime temperatures are expected to reach the low teens in northern areas and the mid-teens farther south. Overnight, skies are likely to clear more widely, allowing temperatures to fall. Some sheltered parts of Scotland could see a touch of air frost by Saturday morning.
Why will the weekend feel more autumnal?
High pressure building across the UK will bring a more settled feel to the weather this weekend. Many western and northern areas can expect long spells of sunshine and dry conditions, making for some pleasant autumn weather.
However, high pressure does not necessarily mean completely dry weather everywhere.
A north-easterly breeze developing around the eastern side of the high will bring cooler conditions to North Sea coasts, with showers affecting parts of northeast and southeast England. These showers may be frequent at times, particularly in the southeast, although rainfall totals are not expected to be significant.
Elsewhere, clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop sharply overnight, bringing chilly starts and the possibility of local frost in the coldest sheltered spots.
Met Office presenter and meteorologist, Aidan McGivern, said: “The Atlantic will remain very active, with a powerful jet stream continuing to generate deep areas of low pressure close to Iceland. However, because the jet stream is expected to stay well to the north of the UK, high pressure is likely to dominate weather conditions across much of the country.
“One of the greatest sources of uncertainty next week will be a cut-off area of low pressure, known as an upper vortex, sitting away from the main jet stream. These features can behave erratically and are often more difficult to predict than weather systems embedded within the main jet stream flow.
“As a result, forecast confidence will be lower when it comes to the exact position of this upper vortex and how it may interact with nearby areas of high pressure. These will be the key factors determining how the weather develops through much of next week.”
What could happen next week?
The most likely scenario through the first half of next week is for high pressure to remain close to the UK, while the main jet stream stays displaced well to the north. This should allow many areas to continue seeing largely dry conditions.
One area being closely monitored by forecasters is a cut-off area of low pressure to the southwest. These systems can behave unpredictably and are often harder to forecast than weather systems embedded within the main jet stream.
Current forecast guidance suggests the southwest of the UK is most likely to see rain or showers during Tuesday and Wednesday, while many other regions remain predominantly dry. The chance of rainfall is currently highest across southern and southwestern parts of the country.
Will Atlantic weather return?
Forecast confidence decreases towards the end of next week, but there is growing evidence that Atlantic weather systems will gradually begin to push eastwards once again. This would bring an increasing risk of rain, particularly across western areas, before potentially spreading more widely.
The key question is not whether Atlantic weather will return, but when. Some forecast scenarios keep much of the UK dry for longer, while others allow rain and stronger winds to arrive sooner.
For now, the most likely trend is for a largely dry and settled spell through the weekend and the first part of next week, with rain most likely in the southwest before a gradual return to more changeable conditions later in the period.
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