After an exceptionally dry July for many parts of England and Wales, attention is turning to whether any meaningful rainfall is on the horizon.
While there are increasing opportunities for rain over the next 10 days, the overall weather pattern shows little sign of a dramatic change, with high pressure remaining an influential feature, especially across southern and eastern parts of the UK.
The result is likely to be a continuation of the recent trend: wetter conditions focused on northern and western areas, while many southern regions remain comparatively dry.
A fresher end to the working week
Thursday brings a welcome change from the more humid conditions experienced earlier in the week. A ridge of higher pressure will help produce a brighter and generally drier day across northern and western areas, although the odd shower cannot be ruled out across Northern Ireland and the far west of Scotland.
Elsewhere, temperatures will be much closer to average, with many areas seeing highs in the high teens or low 20s. More noticeably, humidity levels will fall, making conditions feel considerably fresher than they have in recent days.
Friday follows a similar pattern for much of the country, although the first signs of the next Atlantic system begin to arrive from the northwest. Rain will spread into parts of northwestern Scotland, while most other areas remain dry with plenty of sunshine. As warmer air starts to move northwards once again, temperatures will recover, reaching the mid-20s in southern England and the low 20s more widely elsewhere.
The northern half of the UK will remain under the influence of fresh air from the Atlantic over the next few days
— Met Office (@metoffice) August 5, 2026
Meanwhile southern parts will once again briefly tap into some hot air from the near continent 🌡️📈 pic.twitter.com/mVbKcVIX24
A split developing by the weekend
The weather becomes more interesting as the weekend approaches. Two weather systems will begin to interact to the west of the UK, eventually combining to form a cold front that will move south-eastwards through Saturday and Sunday.
Before the front arrives, southerly winds will help lift temperatures across England and Wales. Saturday could bring highs into the upper 20s for some areas, while parts of the far south and southeast may approach 30°C on Sunday.
The warmest conditions are expected away from the weather front, with much of England and Wales enjoying another hot summer day. Meanwhile, Northern Ireland, western Scotland and parts of northwest England are more likely to see heavy rain and strengthening winds as the front approaches.
Will southern areas finally see rain?
There will be some opportunities for rainfall further south during the second half of the weekend, but current indications suggest totals will remain fairly modest.
As the cold front sinks south-eastwards on Saturday night and Sunday, rain will move into parts of Wales, northern England and later the Midlands. However, by the time it reaches many central and southern areas, the front is expected to weaken and break up. Any rainfall is therefore likely to be scattered and showery rather than prolonged and widespread.
For areas that have experienced the worst of the recent dry spell, rainfall amounts currently appear limited. Even where rain does occur, totals may be no more than around 5mm in many southern regions.
Sunday itself could bring quite a contrast, with cooler air following behind the front across western areas while parts of East Anglia and southeast England remain very warm and humid ahead of it. Some locations could be 7 to 10°C cooler than Saturday, while the far southeast still reaches the high 20s.
READ MORE: Why has it been so dry recently?
A more changeable outlook next week
Looking further ahead, low pressure is expected to remain close to the UK, bringing continued opportunities for rainfall. However, confidence is reasonably high that the wettest conditions will remain skewed towards northern and western areas.
Monday should begin largely fine for many, before rain spreads in from the south and west during the afternoon. Once again, western areas are most likely to see the most persistent rainfall.
By the middle of next week, high pressure over the near continent is expected to extend northwards, favouring drier conditions across central and eastern parts of the UK. As a result, a familiar pattern may re-establish itself, with rainfall focused across northwestern areas while southern and eastern counties remain relatively dry.
Warm rather than hot
While periods of rain become a little more frequent, temperatures are still expected to remain close to or above average through much of the next fortnight. Occasional warmer spells could lift temperatures into the high 20s or even low 30s for a time, particularly when southerly winds develop.
The overall message remains much the same: rain chances are increasing, but for the driest parts of southern England and Wales, there is still no indication of the widespread, sustained rainfall needed to make a significant dent in the exceptionally dry conditions that have developed during recent months.
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