The latest forecast suggests the UK is set to remain in an unsettled pattern over the coming days, with further spells of rain and some hill snow in places.
While there are early signs of a shift later next week, confidence remains low, and for now the dominant theme continues to be wet and occasionally windy weather. Saturated ground means any additional rainfall could bring further disruption.
Why it has been so wet
The driving force behind our recent weather has been the position and strength of the jet stream. This fast‑moving ribbon of air high in the atmosphere has been both lively and displaced further south across the Atlantic.
Cold plunges across North America have helped enhance the jet stream, encouraging it to push low‑pressure systems towards the UK. With cold, dense air also sitting over northern Europe, our weather patterns have become locked in place, preventing much change in the short term.
The outlook for the next few days
Through the remainder of this week and into the weekend, the south‑shifted jet stream continues to direct areas of low-pressure towards the UK. While the rainfall may not be as intense as at the start of the week, further spells of wet weather are expected. A developing area of low-pressure to the southwest is a particular feature to watch on Friday, bringing not only rain but also some gusty winds, especially across southwest England. Yellow weather warnings for rain are in place.
READ MORE: Storm Chandra: How the storm unfolded and where the heaviest rain fell
Thursday itself will offer some drier intervals for many, but as weather fronts move in later, rain will spread northeast. As this meets colder air, some snow is possible, not just over high ground but perhaps briefly at lower levels across parts of northern England and Scotland. Weather warnings are in force, reflecting concerns around rainfall and the potential for localised flooding, particularly where river levels remain high.
Rainfall concerns and saturated ground
Although rainfall totals over the next few days may not be extreme by typical winter standards, around 25 to 50mm in many western areas and higher amounts over hills, the issue is that the ground is already saturated. This means even modest additional rainfall could lead to renewed flooding impacts. Areas of particular concern include eastern Scotland, eastern Northern Ireland, south Wales and southwest England, where recent events have already caused disruption.
Some of the precipitation in eastern Scotland will fall as snow, given the colder air here, temporarily limiting rainfall totals. However, this still contributes to elevated river levels once that snow begins to melt. With low-pressure lingering through the weekend, slow‑moving bands of rain are likely, producing a messy mix of conditions: some brighter spells at times, but also plenty of cloud and occasional showers. Winds will be lighter than in recent days, but with little movement in the pressure pattern, any rainfall could still add to ongoing issues.
Early next week: A key question mark
As we look into early next week, uncertainty in the forecast begins to increase. The jet stream may dip a little further south, potentially shifting one area of low pressure down across Iberia. The exact position of this low on Monday is important, as it may pull some milder, moister air northwards, or equally, it may remain far enough south to keep the UK in a cooler, more stagnant pattern.
Different forecast models diverge slightly here. While the Met Office model keeps the low further south initially, several European model ensembles place it closer to the UK, which would bring milder and wetter conditions sooner. This remains a key uncertainty for the early part of next week.
The broader outlook: Wet pattern persists
Despite some model disagreement, most guidance is aligned on the general pressure pattern through much of next week: low-pressure to the west of the UK, bringing south-westerly winds and further rain. Rainfall anomalies highlight familiar regions, eastern Scotland, eastern Northern Ireland, south Wales and southwest England, as the areas most likely to see wetter‑than‑average conditions continue. Confidence in this scenario is notably high for a forecast at this range, exceeding 70% by midweek.
READ MORE: Week ahead: An unsettled start with Storm Chandra bringing rain and wind
By Thursday, little change is expected, with the broad pattern persisting. The flow remains south-westerly, meaning further spells of rain are likely, and once again falling over areas that have been repeatedly affected in recent weeks.
Hints of change later next week
There are tentative signs of something different emerging as we head towards next weekend. Around Friday, model guidance shows the chance of higher pressure building to the north of the UK, with low-pressure nudging further away. This would introduce more of an easterly flow. Confidence is still modest, around 40%, but notably higher than average for this lead time.
An easterly wind does not guarantee cold and snow, but at this time of year it increases the likelihood of colder conditions and therefore the possibility of wintry weather, especially in eastern areas. The ensemble guidance even shows a growing signal for an easterly flow developing as we move into the following weekend.
Confidence levels
Despite the long‑range uncertainty, the overall confidence in the broader pattern is unusually high. Multi-model ensemble guidance shows a stronger‑than‑normal agreement on the continuation of unsettled conditions through much of next week. As always, confidence decreases the further out the forecast extends, and while hints of an easterly later next week are encouraging for a change, they are by no means guaranteed.
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