The next ten days will bring a mix of conditions across the UK, with spells of wet and at times wintry weather interspersed with drier, brighter periods.
While many people are hoping for some sunshine after recent unsettled spells, the overall pattern remains dominated by low pressure, colder incursions from the north, and brief but welcome windows of fine weather.
A key feature shaping the weather is the position of the jet stream, which continues to run to the south of the UK, much as it has through the year so far. This pattern supports lows to the west and southwest of the UK while high pressure over Scandinavia has acted as a block, slowing or diverting weather systems.
This setup has contributed to persistent rainfall in several regions. However, colder air across the north will continue to push southwards through the end of the week, bringing the potential for sleet and snow, especially over higher ground.
Midweek into Friday: colder air pushing south with snow risk
Through Thursday and into Friday, colder air will continue its southward push. This will result in an increasing likelihood of rain turning to sleet and snow across Scotland and northern England, particularly over modest high ground. Northern Ireland, northern England, north Wales and central to southeastern England will see a band of rain, while northeast Scotland may experience showers of rain, sleet, and snow. In contrast, the southwest will remain milder and drier with brighter spells and little risk of wintry weather.
READ MORE: Deep Dive: Understanding this winter’s remarkably persistent weather pattern
Overnight into Friday, the continuation of colder air will bring frosty and icy conditions across northern areas. Snowfall is possible across parts of Scotland and northern England, with accumulations potentially reaching around 10 cm over higher ground, adding to existing lying snow. Even lower levels may see a couple of centimetres, which could contribute to disruption. Further south, temperatures remain higher, reducing the risk of snow.
Friday into the weekend: wintry showers and a turn brighter for Valentine’s Day
Friday begins cold and frosty for northern areas, with wintry conditions easing southward. Wales and higher ground further south may see some wintry precipitation, although confidence is lower here. Rain remains a concern due to saturated ground, raising the risk of localised impacts. Meanwhile, northern and northeastern coastal areas will experience further wintry showers, while more central areas of Scotland and Northern Ireland could enjoy a clearer, calmer day, albeit in chilly air.
By Saturday, Valentine’s Day, weather conditions improve significantly. A ridge of high-pressure builds, bringing a widespread cold and frosty start but also large areas of dry, clear, and sunny weather. Many places are likely to experience their sunniest day of the year so far. Temperatures will stay in the mid‑single figures, and while the air will feel cold, the low winter sun may offer a hint of warmth in sheltered spots.
However, this fine weather is not expected to last. Cloud will begin to build from the west later on Saturday as a frontal system approaches. Saturday night into Sunday will see cloud thickening and rain spreading eastwards. As this system meets the cold air already in place, significant snowfall is likely on the leading edge, especially across higher ground from the Pennines northwards, where 10–20cm of fresh snow may accumulate above around 300metres. Even lower levels may see a few centimetres. Where precipitation falls as rain, particularly toward the southwest, totals of 30–40mm could create further issues given saturated ground.
Early next week: unsettled and turning colder again
Into Monday, low pressure continues to dominate, and a north‑north-westerly flow is likely to develop. Temperatures may briefly lift on Sunday but will fall again as colder air returns. This period remains unsettled, with rain or showers affecting many areas. With the blocking high over Scandinavia finally retreating, weather systems are more able to move through the UK, meaning a more mobile, changeable pattern than earlier in the winter.
READ MORE: How much rain have we had so far this year?
Tuesday’s forecast remains uncertain, with confidence lower regarding specific details. However, attention turns to Wednesday, when both the Met Office model and the ECMWF model suggest an area of low pressure crossing the UK. The depth and track of this low remain uncertain, but there is potential for wet, windy and possibly wintry weather across several regions. This is something forecasters will monitor closely over the coming days.
Late in the outlook: signs of higher-pressure building
Towards the end of next week, there are tentative signs of high pressure building from the southwest, although confidence remains low. The most likely and second most likely forecast scenarios both indicate rising pressure, which could bring a more settled spell. Temperatures through this period show a general gradual decline, with London illustrating this trend clearly: a notable drop for the cold, sunny start on Saturday, a brief recovery, and then a slow easing downward through the following week.
Looking further ahead, even beyond the ten‑day window, there are early indications that high pressure to the southwest could become more influential toward the end of February. While not guaranteed, this raises the possibility of quieter, more spring‑like conditions as meteorological spring approaches.
You can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.
