After several weeks dominated by a very similar weather setup, this week brings the first signs of a shift.
So far this winter, a south‑displaced jet stream has kept weather systems tracking repeatedly across the same parts of the UK, concentrating the wettest conditions in southern England and northeastern Scotland. Many of these areas have already exceeded their average winter rainfall totals by early February, leaving the ground highly saturated and sensitive to further rain.
Over the coming days, we will continue to see further spells of wet and at times windy weather. However, a significant change develops later in the week, when colder air begins to move south across the UK. By Friday, many areas will notice sharply lower temperatures, increasing the risk of snow, particularly over higher ground in Scotland, northern England, and parts of Wales.
Early week: unsettled, mild in the south, and warnings in place
Low-pressure remains firmly in charge, drawing in mild south-westerly winds for southern parts of the UK while feeding persistent rain into the north. Weather warnings remain in force for eastern Scotland, where the repeatedly saturated landscape is vulnerable to further heavy rainfall.
A temporary lull offers a dry interlude during Tuesday afternoon for some areas, but it will be short lived. Bands of heavy, showery rain move in again from the south and west later in the day, accompanied by brisk winds, especially across southwestern parts of the UK.
Despite this unsettled picture, temperatures remain relatively mild for southern England and Wales, with the airflow still coming from the southwest. Further north, however, winds begin to swing in from the North Sea, bringing a noticeably chillier feel to Scotland and northeast England.
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Midweek: rain persists, snow starts over high ground, and colder air pushes south
On Wednesday, low-pressure edges slightly further north but continues to feed a succession of weather fronts across the UK. Wet conditions are expected for many areas through the day, and the weather warning for eastern Scotland remains in place. Across the Grampians, the heaviest and most persistent rain begins to fall as snow over the highest elevations.
Northern Scotland and northern England see another day of continuous, often heavy rain, reinforcing waterlogging concerns. In contrast, some western and southwestern parts of the UK may see a few brighter spells during the afternoon. Southern counties continue to feel relatively mild, with southerly or south-westerly winds holding conditions up above average for the time of year.
By midweek, we begin to see the first hints of a broader change in the weather pattern. Colder air sourced from Scandinavia begins to push southwards, nudging into northern Scotland on Wednesday and gradually extending its influence further south on Thursday.
Late week: colder conditions take hold and increasing risk of snow
The shift in the broader atmospheric setup becomes more pronounced toward Thursday and Friday. The long‑standing blocked pattern, which has kept low-pressure systems lingering to the west and unable to move eastwards, finally begins to break down. As this happens, colder air sinks further south across the UK.
Thursday brings another round of rain, most concentrated across northern areas. Some heavier pulses may begin to spread into northwestern England, although details remain uncertain at this range. Further south and west, there is potential for drier conditions at times, with even some sunshine possible, though brisk winds continue around the western flank of the low.
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By Friday, the colder air mass becomes more dominant. Temperatures fall below average across much of the UK, and many areas will feel a stark contrast compared to the mild start earlier in the week. As freezing levels drop, precipitation increasingly turns to snow, initially over higher ground in Scotland but potentially reaching lower levels later in the day. The high ground of north Wales and northern England may also see accumulating snowfall by Friday evening.
This transition marks the most significant change of the week: the move from mild, wet conditions to colder, more wintry weather.
Weekend outlook: brief clearance before Atlantic systems return
The colder air still lingers into Saturday, giving the weekend a crisp start. As the week’s rain‑bearing systems gradually clear eastwards, a ridge of high pressure builds in temporarily. This brings the prospect of a mostly dry and potentially bright day for many areas on Saturday. Sunshine, lighter winds and clearer skies are likely to be welcome after a very unsettled week. However, it will feel chilly, and overnight frost is possible.
Unfortunately, this break in the unsettled pattern won’t last long. The Atlantic is expected to reassert itself by early next week, pushing milder and more changeable conditions back across the UK. Nonetheless, Saturday offers a brief window for calmer, clearer weather before the next round of frontal systems arrives.
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