After a notably cold spell last week, the weather in the coming days will take on a markedly milder tone for much of the UK.
However, the shift in temperature comes alongside an unsettled pattern, with rain featuring regularly and the potential for some heavier outbreaks toward the end of the week. While many areas will see at least some wet weather, it is Thursday and Friday that carry the greatest potential for more significant impacts, especially in western and southern parts of the country. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact behaviour of developing low pressure later in the week, but confidence is growing on a generally unsettled theme.
Wednesday: A brief settled spell and a colder start
As Tuesday’s weather front slips away to the south and east, a brief ridge of high pressure will build across the UK early on Wednesday. This will allow temperatures to drop sharply overnight, bringing a notably chilly start. Many rural areas are likely to experience a frost, with a risk of icy patches. A yellow weather warning for ice has been issued.
Despite the cold beginning, Wednesday looks likely to be the best day of the week for those seeking some winter sunshine. Much of the country will enjoy bright and dry conditions, particularly through central and eastern regions. Cloud may linger a little longer in the south and east first thing due to the departing front, but this should break up during the morning.
In contrast, the next Atlantic system will already be approaching the northwest, thickening cloud over Northern Ireland and western Scotland later in the day. Winds will begin to strengthen in these areas, signalling the start of the next unsettled phase. Temperatures on Wednesday will struggle compared with earlier in the week, making it a cooler but brighter day overall.
Thursday and Friday: Low pressure brings increasing uncertainty and rain
By Thursday, attention turns to an area of low pressure developing to the south of the UK. This system is set to move northwards, but there remains some uncertainty about its exact track and intensity. Model guidance suggests differing scenarios, with the Met Office model and some European outputs offering slightly different solutions.
⚠️ Yellow weather warning issued ⚠️
— Met Office (@metoffice) January 13, 2026
Heavy rain across parts of England and Wales
Thursday 0900 – 2359
Latest info 👉 https://t.co/QwDLMfRBfs
Stay #WeatherAware⚠️ pic.twitter.com/Mzx5rBCuFE
The most likely outcome currently points to cloud and rain pushing northeast across the country during Thursday. Showers will continue for northern parts of the UK, while the heaviest and most prolonged rainfall is expected across more southern and southwestern regions, including South Wales and the south coast of England.
Accumulations of 20-40 mm are expected fairly widely, in some places falling in just a few hours, with the potential for 40-70 mm in a few isolated spots, this most likely across parts of the southwest England. Temperatures will remain mild, especially where cloud cover persists.
Meanwhile, northern Scotland and the north of Northern Ireland may escape the worst of Thursday’s rain, holding onto some drier spells. However, cloud will thicken from the west as the next weather front continues to advance.
The position and depth of the developing low-pressure system remains a key area of uncertainty for Friday. Some model runs indicate a deeper low tracking further north, which would introduce stronger winds, potentially gale force in coastal areas, and heavier rain affecting parts of Northern England and Scotland. In this scenario, higher ground in Scotland and the Pennines could see some snow where the system meets colder air aloft.
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Other models favour a more southerly and less intense low, which would keep the strongest winds away from the far north and focus rainfall more toward England and Wales. This would reduce the threat of disruptive winds for Scotland but concentrate wet weather further south. The American GFS model currently offers a slightly different distribution again, underlining the range of possible outcomes.
Despite these differences, the broad expectation is for Friday to bring unsettled weather, with showers following from the southwest once the main band of rain clears. Temperatures will be close to average for mid‑January, though the stronger winds near the low centre may hold them up slightly during the morning.
Rainfall totals: Southern and western areas most affected
Model comparisons indicate that Thursday’s rainfall is most likely to be concentrated across southern and southwestern parts of the UK, with some uncertainty around exact totals. Into Friday, the differences between models become more pronounced, particularly for northern areas. The Met Office model currently suggests heavier accumulations are possible across Northern England and parts of Scotland if the low tracks further north, while some European outputs keep the heaviest rain firmly in the south.
Regardless of these nuances, the overall theme is clear: much of the UK will see rain at some point, and some areas, especially in the south and west, could see substantial totals over the two‑day period.
Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.
