After a recent spell of hot weather for some, many will be asking whether the UK is likely to see any more heatwaves before the end of August.
The latest longer-range outlook suggests that while conditions are expected to stay unsettled at first, there are signs of a shift towards more settled and warmer weather as August progresses, with the potential for further heatwaves later in the period.
Changeable weather to end July
As we head towards the end of July, the UK is expected to see a fairly changeable pattern. Higher pressure is likely to sit to the southwest of the UK, while lower pressure remains more influential to the north. This setup is likely to allow Atlantic frontal systems, or areas of low pressure, to move across the country at times.
There is also a chance that rainfall accumulations could be above average locally, although the detail on which regions are most likely to see the wettest conditions remains uncertain at this range.
In between these wet spells, there should be some drier and more settled interludes. However, these are not expected to be especially long-lasting during the final days of July. There is also a risk of strong winds at times, particularly if any deeper or larger areas of low pressure develop close to the UK. Despite the unsettled feel, temperatures are still expected to be above average overall.
Early August likely to stay mixed
The first week of August is expected to bring a broadly similar theme. Changeable conditions are likely to continue, with further Atlantic systems possible at times. This means there could still be spells of rain or showers, alongside some drier and brighter intervals.
For anyone hoping for an immediate return to widespread hot, settled weather, the first part of August may therefore be rather mixed. While temperatures are still likely to be above average overall, the weather pattern does not point to a prolonged settled spell straight away.
The heat will start re-building across parts of England and Wales this week, with temperatures possibly approaching 30°C in places by Friday🌡️
— Met Office (@metoffice) July 21, 2026
However, temperatures won't rise as high as recent hot spells and northern areas of the UK will be somewhat cooler and cloudier🌤️ pic.twitter.com/FxMfTMlGWL
More settled later in August
The signal begins to change from the second week of August onwards. At this stage, a trend towards more settled conditions is likely, with a greater incidence of dry weather and high-pressure patterns. This would increase the likelihood of longer dry spells and warmer conditions developing more widely across the UK.
However, this does not mean completely settled weather everywhere. There remains a risk that Atlantic frontal systems could interrupt the drier pattern at times, especially across northern parts of the UK. In the south, there is also the possibility of thundery outbreaks, which can sometimes develop when warmer air becomes established.
Even with these interruptions, overall rainfall amounts later in the period are considered more likely to be near average, or slightly below, rather than above. That points towards a gradually drier theme through August, particularly compared with the more changeable end to July and start to the month.
READ MORE: Week Ahead: Dry for many, but signs of change by the weekend
Will there be more heatwaves?
The key message is that further heatwaves are possible but not guaranteed. The longer-range outlook indicates that temperatures are likely to be above average overall, with a risk of hot weather and heatwaves later in August.
At this range, it is not possible to say exactly where any heatwave conditions would occur, how intense they might be, or how long they could last. Heatwave development will depend on the position and strength of high pressure, the source of the air moving across the UK, and whether any Atlantic or thundery interruptions break down the warmer pattern.
So, while the end of July and start of August look a little more unsettled, the chance of more notable warmth increases later in August. The most likely outcome is a transition from mixed weather at first towards something drier, warmer and more settled as the month goes on.
For now, the outlook suggests the heat could return, particularly later in August, but any further heatwaves will depend on how strongly high pressure develops and how persistent that pattern becomes.
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