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A wet and windy start to October

After a week of typically autumnal weather – with foggy nights, pleasant sunshine and periods of wind and rain – a more unsettled spell of weather looks likely for this weekend and the start of next week.

Our meteorologists have been monitoring the progression of tropical systems Lee and Maria in the Atlantic and any likely impact they may have on UK weather. By the time we get to the weekend these systems will have drifted away from the tropics, and as they lose connection with warmer tropical waters they will lose this source of energy and weaken rapidly as a result. The waters in our latitudes of the North Atlantic are far too cool to sustain an actual hurricane.

Steve Ramsdale, Chief Operational Meteorologist explains: “The remnants of tropical systems are likely to impact our weather towards the end of the weekend and into the beginning of next week. However, it is important to say that any weather impacts will be very different from those experienced in the Caribbean.”

Although both systems will be much weaker by the time they enter the UK’s latitudes, their remnants will still contain air of tropical origin which can exert an influence on the weather in the north east Atlantic, including across the UK.

 Steve adds: “The track of these systems and how they may interact with another area of low pressure in the Atlantic is uncertain – there may end up being one large area of low pressure or several separate systems. However, many places will see a period of wet and windy weather later this weekend and into next week. It looks likely that western parts of the UK will see the heaviest rainfall and a yellow National Severe Weather Warning has been issued for rainfall for Sunday and Monday. But, as ever, the best advice is to keep up to date with the latest forecast and warnings.”

The good news is that once these systems clear away eastwards, the weather is likely to settle down across the UK as high pressure builds. Bizarrely, there is more confidence in the forecast for the end of next week than for this weekend, which demonstrates the power tropical systems have to influence our weather.

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