We look at some recent online weather headlines to see how well they’re reflecting the UK weather forecast.
Following last week’s warm spell, and confirmation of an April which broke UK sunshine records, a largely fine and settled week of weather is in the Met Office forecast, with only isolated showers at times and a chance of some more persistent rain in the northwest over the weekend for a time.
With a rather benign week of weather in the forecast for many, it has taken a touch more creativity for some of this week’s online weather headlines…
Is there a UK heatwave on the way?
‘Exact date UK mini-heatwave hits next week with six counties in England roasted,’ says one headline, opting to avoid this week’s weather forecast entirely.
What our forecast says: This week will see a good deal of dry and fine weather for much of the UK, with temperatures gradually rising to around or a little above average. The headline references next week for an ‘exact date’ of warmer weather. Forecasting beyond a week ahead comes with in-built uncertainty, so it’s not possible to pinpoint exact dates for specific conditions, especially down to county level as the headline suggests.
The latest Met Office long-range forecast gives an indication of the most likely scenarios next week, with a continuation in settled conditions likely at the start of next week, with some warm weather possible, though it’s too early to suggest any specific temperatures, or speculate if any locations could meet official heatwave criteria.
‘Millions of UK households urged to 'close all windows' before Sunday morning,’ says another, more alarming, headline.
What our forecast says: This headline appears to be using advice for what to do during severe heat to suggest warmth is on the way. While it will warm up later this week, particularly in southern and central areas, there is currently no warning from the Met Office, though there are steps people can take to make the most of summer weather with WeatherReady.
The headline is referring to advice on how to keep your house cool during warm weather, but there is no specific suggestion to do this by a certain date due to the current forecast.
‘When will it get warm again? Met Office issues verdict,’ is headline that has a few variations that have appeared online in recent days.
What our forecast says: Last week’s warmth saw temperatures rise to 29.3°C at Kew Gardens, making it the warmest day of the year so far. It did get cooler over the weekend but temperatures will rise again this week to slightly above average for many, exceeding 20°C for some, though not as warm as last week.
How hot will summer be this year?
‘Brits set to sizzle in hottest summer ever as forecasters predict record temperatures,’ declares one headline.
What our forecast says: It’s not possible to predict the exact weather for an entirety of meteorological summer, and it’s also not possible to predict the exact temperatures summer weather may reach. When talking over such long periods, weather models are run hundreds of times to give an indication of the likely scenarios and give probabilities of different dominant conditions. While long range outlooks, used primarily by contingency planners, suggest an above-average chance of warmer-than-average conditions, this is not an indication of an imminent record-breaking summer, as the cooler, or more average conditions remain possible.
Is it turning colder?
One headline has a change of tack from the others this week, saying, ‘UK weather change as freezing winds and cold spell set to sweep across country this week.’
What our forecast says: High pressure is in charge for much of this week, with settled weather and light winds for the vast majority. While temperatures are lower than last week, and could feel cool overnight in particular, it’s a relatively typical spell of weather for a UK spring and will gradually warm up for many through the week. The breezier conditions are more likely further north and west into the weekend, though this signal is still fairly normal for the time of year.
Find out more about ‘exact date’ headlines and where they come from.
Want to check the weather information you read online? Find our quick guide to assessing the forecast in online news.
If you want detailed analysis on long-range weather forecasts, then explore the Met Office YouTube, which includes both short-range forecasts as well as in-depth discussion on the meteorological outlook.
