The UK’s weather over the next ten days is set to see a notable shift from wet and warm conditions to a pattern that is drier and cooler.
The forecast is shaped by the behaviour of the Jetstream, the position of high-and low-pressure systems, and the influence of tropical developments in the Atlantic. Here’s a detailed look at what to expect, and why the forecast remains complex and changeable.
Wet and warm to start: The Jetstream’s influence
In the short term, the UK will experience both wet and warm weather, with rain and humidity affecting many regions. The Jetstream, a fast-moving ribbon of air high in the atmosphere, is currently sending weather systems rapidly across the country. This setup is associated with changeable, often wet and windy conditions, as low pressure systems are spun up by a trough in the Atlantic.
September has begun with a notable shift in the UK’s weather pattern, delivering widespread rainfall across much of the country.
— Met Office (@metoffice) September 17, 2025
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Over the next four or five days, this trough will cross the UK, bringing further wet weather, particularly as it moves through into the weekend. Eastern areas, especially East Anglia and the Southeast, will see temperatures rising into the mid-20s on Thursday and Friday, with a humid feel. Elsewhere, temperatures will be closer to average, but the humidity will be noticeable for many.
Rainfall and regional contrasts
The forecast highlights the risk of heavy rain, especially for northwest England, Northern Ireland, southern Scotland, and parts of Wales. Persistent rain in these areas means that rainfall totals could build up quickly, and there is some uncertainty about the exact position of the weather fronts. South Wales is already experiencing heavy rain at the time of recording.
As the weekend approaches, attention turns to a developing area of low pressure, which is expected to interact with the Jetstream and generate widespread heavy bursts of rain through Saturday and into Sunday. This system will eventually clear away, allowing higher pressure to build in and bring drier conditions for many.
Transition to drier, cooler weather
As the Jetstream shifts northwards, high pressure is allowed to build, particularly across northern areas in the early part of next week. This transition marks a change to a more amplified weather pattern, with the Jetstream doubling back on itself and generating what is known as a cutoff low-pressure system. The position of this cutoff low is a key source of uncertainty in the forecast, especially for southern Britain.
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With high pressure building in, the weather will turn drier and cooler, especially for northern regions. However, the timing of the clearance of rain from the southeast remains uncertain, and the position of the Jetstream will be crucial in determining how quickly conditions improve.
Medium-range forecast: Ensemble modelling and uncertainty
To assess the medium-range forecast, meteorologists use ensemble modelling, running computer models many times with slightly different initial conditions. This approach helps to capture the range of possible outcomes and the inherent uncertainty in the forecast.
Recent runs of the European model show a trend towards the low-pressure system pulling further south, away from the UK, increasing confidence that drier conditions will prevail for most. However, there remains a question mark about whether rain will linger in the southeast, and the position of the low-pressure system is still a source of uncertainty.
Pressure and rainfall anomalies
Analysis of pressure anomalies for next week shows a strong signal for higher-than-average pressure across the north of the UK and Scandinavia. This suggests that high pressure will be the main feature, bringing drier conditions to Scotland and Northern Ireland. However, the far south of the UK remains close to average, indicating that low pressure systems may not be far away.
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Rainfall anomaly maps show that, under the influence of high pressure, Scotland and Northern Ireland are likely to be drier than average. In contrast, East Anglia and the Southeast may see wetter than average conditions, with showery rain persisting from the low-pressure system. These anomalies are averaged over the whole week, so day-to-day variations are still possible.
Most likely pressure patterns
Looking at the most likely pressure patterns, Tuesday is expected to see anticyclonic high-pressure sitting to the northwest of the UK. Through Wednesday and Thursday, the high is likely to be positioned over the North Sea or become a true Scandinavian high. There is more than a 40% chance that this will be the general weather pattern, although ensemble modelling shows that other scenarios are possible.
Even into Friday, the most likely pressure pattern is for high pressure to dominate, although confidence drops to around 23%. This means that while a quarter of the ensemble suggests this pattern, there is still a strong signal for high pressure to be close to the northern half of the UK.
Implications for UK weather
The dominance of high pressure means that the UK can expect cooler and much drier conditions compared to the start of September. Under high pressure, there is a good chance of lengthy spells of sunshine, especially in northern regions. However, with light winds and longer nights, there is an increased risk of mist and fog patches, particularly in the mornings.
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For East Anglia and the Southeast, the position of the low-pressure system means that showery rain could persist, and the forecast remains uncertain for these areas. The interplay between high and low pressure will determine whether conditions turn fully dry or remain unsettled in the south.
Tropical developments and added complexity
Adding further complexity to the forecast is Tropical Depression 7 in the Atlantic, which is expected to develop into a tropical storm and potentially a hurricane. As it drifts northwards away from the Caribbean and possibly approaches Bermuda, it could influence the UK’s weather by interacting with the Jetstream. This interaction may add more uncertainty to the forecast for the back end of next week and the following weekend.
In summary, the current forecast points to a changeable outlook for the UK, with a wet and warm start giving way to drier and cooler conditions as high pressure builds. The forecast is shaped by the behaviour of the Jetstream, the position of high-and low-pressure systems, and the potential influence of tropical developments in the Atlantic. While confidence is growing for a drier spell, especially in northern regions, uncertainty remains for the southeast, where showery rain could persist.
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