As we approach the summer solstice this weekend, the UK is experiencing a spell of hot weather, with the shortest night of the year potentially also being the warmest so far.
The key question in the medium-range forecast is how long this heat will persist before cooler, more unsettled conditions return.
The Big Picture
At the time of writing, the jet stream is positioned to the north of the UK, allowing high pressure to dominate and usher in warm air from the south. This setup is expected to hold through the weekend, but significant changes are on the horizon. A trough in the jet stream over the Atlantic is forecast to disrupt the current pattern, pushing an area of low pressure towards the west of the UK. By Monday, the jet stream is expected to return to a more typical position for this time of year, steering cooler Atlantic air across the country.
Just how high will temperatures get? 🌡️
— Met Office (@metoffice) June 18, 2025
Here's a look at when the peak temperatures may occur where you are over the next few days 📈 pic.twitter.com/wgnhRDnh2u
Short-Term Outlook: Heat Peaks This Weekend
Under the influence of high pressure, temperatures are steadily rising. This high is compressing the air, leading to a gradual increase in temperatures through the end of the week.
On Friday, the approaching trough will introduce more cloud at medium and high levels, with the possibility of a few scattered showers or even the odd rumble of thunder. However, most areas will remain dry. Despite the cloud, temperatures are still expected to exceed 30°C in central and eastern England, particularly as the North Sea breeze eases.
Saturday is likely to be the peak of the heatwave. Temperatures could reach 33–34°C in parts of central and eastern England. While it may not be as hot further west, humidity levels will be higher, making it feel particularly sticky and uncomfortable. Dew points, a measure of atmospheric moisture, will be elevated in the west, contributing to a clammy feel despite slightly lower temperatures.
While most areas will remain dry and sunny, there is a risk of a few showers or thunderstorms developing, particularly across northern and western regions. These could well become heavier into the evening, especially across parts of western and northern Britain.
READ MORE: Met Office Deep Dive: Hot weather to bring heatwave for many
Saturday Night into Sunday: Warmest Night of the Year?
Warm and humid air will continue to move eastwards, potentially making Saturday night into Sunday the warmest night of the year. The Met Office model suggests that the hot air will be pushed away by Sunday, but there is some uncertainty. The European ECMWF model holds onto the heat longer, especially across East Anglia and the southeast, suggesting that Sunday could still see temperatures around 28-29°C in these areas.
Into Next Week: A Shift to More Changeable Conditions
Looking beyond the weekend, the forecast becomes more uncertain. While the heat and humidity are expected to ease, there remains a small chance that parts of the south could still reach close to 30°C early next week. However, the general trend is towards more variable weather.
The jet stream is forecast to settle into a more typical summer position across the far north of the UK. This will steer low pressure systems towards the north, bringing outbreaks of rain, particularly to northwestern areas. Westerly winds are likely to dominate, with a mix of weather types expected across the country.
Probability plots indicate that westerly and southwesterly flows will be the most common through next week. These patterns are associated with low pressure to the north and higher rainfall anomalies in the northwest. While the south will generally be drier, occasional weather fronts could extend far enough south to bring some showery rain.
Friday and Saturday nights will be warm and uncomfortable for sleeping, with temperatures perhaps staying above 20°C in places - known as a "tropical night" 🌡️
— Met Office (@metoffice) June 18, 2025
Whilst the next couple of nights won't generally be quite as warm, many places will stay in the mid teens Celsius 📈 pic.twitter.com/9ZyCR4Z39y
Regional Variations and Temperature Trends
Temperature profiles at 850 millibars (around 1.5 km above sea level) show a clear oscillation pattern developing next week. This suggests that weather systems will be moving through regularly, leading to fluctuating temperatures. In Glasgow, for example, temperatures will rise initially but then vary significantly as the week progresses. A similar pattern is expected further south in Bath.
Overall, the weather next week will be more changeable compared to the steady heat build-up of this week. The further south and east you are, the drier it is likely to be. Conversely, the north and west will be closer to low pressure systems and therefore more prone to outbreaks of rain.
Outlook
- Thursday to Saturday: Hot and mostly dry, with temperatures exceeding 30°C in many areas. Peak heat expected on Saturday.
- Saturday night: Potentially the warmest night of the year.
- Sunday: Still hot in the southeast, but cooler air begins to spread from the west.
- Next week: More variable weather with westerly winds, occasional rain in the north and west, and drier conditions in the south and east.
After a heatwave this week the weather looks a little more mixed next week but we’ll still have some warm sunshine.
— Met Office (@metoffice) June 18, 2025
Find out more in the 10-day-trend with Alex Deakin pic.twitter.com/i8Lh3CvxvT
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