As we move into meteorological winter, many may be hoping for a taste of snow
However, the outlook for the next 10 days suggests that, while there will be plenty falling from the sky, it will be mostly rain rather than snow.
The UK is set for a spell of unsettled, wet, and at times windy weather, with only brief colder interludes and little sign of any prolonged wintry conditions.
The big picture: Jet stream drives unsettled weather
To understand the upcoming weather, it’s important to look at the position and orientation of the jet stream. Currently, the jet stream is oriented north-south to the east of the UK, but across the Atlantic it is more east-west. This configuration is significant, as it allows a succession of low-pressure systems to be pushed towards the UK.
These systems are responsible for the outbreaks of rain that will affect many areas over the coming days. One low moves through on Friday and into Saturday, another arrives for Saturday into Sunday, and yet another spins up from the south, potentially becoming a potent area of low pressure.
Jet stream shifts south: More energy, more rain
A notable change in the coming days is the expected southward shift of the jet stream. As it moves, it will help to spin up areas of low pressure, drawing in warmer air and increasing the energy of these systems. This means that not only will the lows be more intense, but they will also be capable of carrying more moisture, leading to heavier rainfall events.
Rainfall totals will be building across the UK throughout the rest of this week ☔
— Met Office (@metoffice) December 3, 2025
Heavy pulses are particularly possible on Friday
Stay tuned to the forecast for further updates pic.twitter.com/uRzMu4U3eX
Stalling lows: Persistent rain and soggy ground
The jet stream’s orientation and weakening to the east of the UK means that low pressure systems are likely to slow down or even stall over the country. Without a strong push to move them along, these systems will linger, dropping more rain over the same areas and increasing the risk of localised flooding. The ground is already very soggy, and further rainfall will only exacerbate the situation, especially in western parts of the UK.
Thursday and Friday: Rain, showers, and a brief cold snap
The first set of weather fronts will move through on Thursday, with little lows developing along an occluded front. This will slow the progress of rain, particularly across eastern areas, leading to a dull and damp start. However, many places should see some brighter spells and a few showers as the day progresses. By Thursday night and into Friday, clearer skies will allow temperatures to drop, bringing a brief window of colder weather. Frost is likely across eastern areas, with potentially dense patches of fog forming in East Anglia and the southeast. Friday morning will be cold, but the next weather system is already waiting in the wings.
Weekend: Wet and windy with heavy rainfall in places
Friday and the weekend will see further spells of wet and windy weather as another low-pressure system moves in. Rainfall totals from Friday into Saturday could be significant, especially over high ground in southwest England, the moors, and particularly South Wales, where 30 to 40 millimetres of rain are likely. Hills of North Wales could see as much as 50 millimetres, and eastern parts of Scotland may also receive more than 50 millimetres over the high ground. These areas are most at risk of seeing the heaviest rain through the weekend, with further bands of rain expected to move through on Sunday.
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Flood risk and regional contrasts
Given how wet it has already been, the additional rainfall, especially in western areas, could lead to localised flooding and travel disruption. In contrast, some eastern parts of the UK are still running a rainfall deficit, a reminder of the regional contrasts that can occur even during unsettled spells.
Looking ahead: More uncertainty, but low pressure dominates
As we move into next week, the forecast becomes more uncertain, particularly regarding the development and track of further low-pressure systems. Computer models, including both the Met Office and European models, generally agree on the overall pattern: intense lows developing in the Atlantic and spreading towards the UK, bringing further spells of wet and windy weather.
The southwestern quarter of the UK is likely to bear the brunt of the heaviest rain as we head into the new working week, and there is little sign that the unsettled pattern will break down soon.
Probability plots: Mild and wet, not cold and snowy
Probability plots for next week show that low pressure is likely to continue dominating, with south-westerly winds bringing mild and moist air from the Atlantic. Those hoping for cold air and frosts will be disappointed, as the most likely scenario is for low pressure to track across the south of the UK. Even though high pressure over Scandinavia is present, it is not strong enough to block the incoming lows or bring colder, drier weather to the UK. Instead, the overall pattern remains unsettled and mild.
READ MORE: November 2025 weather stats: A regional breakdown
Rainfall anomalies and temperature trends
Rainfall anomaly charts highlight that western and southwestern parts of the UK are likely to see more rain than usual for this time of year. The most probable pressure patterns all show low pressure sitting to the west or south of the UK, with a 30–50% chance of this scenario persisting more than a week ahead. Winds from the southwest will keep temperatures on the mild side, with little sign of any significant cold spells. Ensemble forecasts for London suggest average temperatures of 10–11°C, with only brief dips into colder territory. Even in Edinburgh, the pattern is similar, with only short-lived colder snaps and no real sign of anything too cold. Both by day and by night, it is likely to stay mild across all parts of the UK.
While there may be occasional frosty mornings, there is little sign of any prolonged wintry weather. For now, winter is on hold, and the focus remains on managing the impacts of persistent rain and mild conditions.
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