The UK’s weather is on the move. After an exceptionally mild and wet start to November, big changes are coming.
In this week’s Deep Dive, we explore why the weather is about to turn colder, why some areas will see heavy rain and strong winds, and what global factors are driving these shifts. We’ll also look ahead to next week and discuss the uncertainties around temperatures and rainfall.
A record-breaking start to November
November 2025 has been remarkable so far. The first ten days have been the warmest on record for this time of year, based on daily mean temperatures. These records go back to the 1930s for day-by-day comparisons and to 1884 for monthly averages.
- The mean temperature for early November has been close to 11°C, around 4.3°C above the long-term average.
- Daytime highs have been among the warmest on record, while minimum temperatures have set new station records.
- Typically, early November is slightly milder than the month as a whole, but this year’s warmth has been more like early October.
It hasn’t just been warm. It’s also been wet. Many parts of the UK have seen persistent rainfall, and that theme continues for several more days in some regions.
Why the weather is changing
The shift to colder conditions is linked to changes in the jet stream and a phenomenon known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). So far this month, the jet stream has been relatively flat across the Atlantic, sending areas of low pressure towards the UK and bringing spells of rain, cloud, and southwesterly winds.
READ MORE: October 2025 weather stats: A regional breakdown
Over the next few days, the jet stream becomes more amplified. High pressure builds over Greenland and Iceland, while low pressure lingers near the Azores. This pattern leads to a negative NAO phase, which often weakens the westerly flow and allows colder air to move in from the north and east.
Teleconnections at play
Several global factors are influencing this change:
- La Niña in the Pacific, promoting warmer waters and enhanced rainfall near Indonesia.
- Indian Ocean Dipole in a negative phase, adding to the tropical rainfall signal.
- Madden–Julian Oscillation in phase six, increasing thunderstorm activity over the West Pacific.
- Quasi-biennial oscillation in an easterly phase, affecting stratospheric winds and the jet stream.
These teleconnections are all pointing in the same direction: a weaker, wavier jet stream and higher pressure over the North Atlantic. This combination sets the stage for colder air to push south into the UK.
Heavy rain and strong winds before the cold arrives
Before the colder air takes hold, some parts of the UK will see very wet and windy conditions. The reason? Weather fronts are stalling rather than sweeping through quickly. With easterly winds developing, these fronts slow down, leading to prolonged rainfall.
Friday is the most concerning day for rainfall. A slow-moving front brings widespread heavy rain to parts of Wales, the Midlands, and northern England.
Warnings are in place, including an amber warning for heavy rain across central parts of England and Wales where between 50 and 150 millimetres of rain could fall in some areas. While such totals are not unusual on west-facing hills, they are less common on the eastern side, increasing the risk of significant impacts. A yellow warning is also in place for rain for central and southern England, as well as two yellow wind warnings for northwest Wales and northwest England and the west midlands.
READ MORE: Mild start to November sees temperature records broken
Strong easterly winds will accompany Friday’s rain, with gusts of 50–60 mph across exposed areas such as North Wales, West Wales, and the Pennines. This is an unusual wind direction for the UK and could cause additional issues, especially when combined with heavy rain.
Colder air spreading south
By Thursday, colder air begins to dig into Scotland, bringing a noticeable drop in temperatures. Freezing levels fall to 400–600 metres, meaning snow showers are possible over modest hills and even down to sea level in Shetland. However, disruptive snow is unlikely, and showers will ease as high pressure builds over the weekend.
Elsewhere, the transition to colder conditions takes longer. Southern parts of the UK remain mild through the weekend, with temperatures in the mid-teens, before a downward trend begins early next week.
What to expect next week
The most likely scenario for next week is high pressure to the north of the UK, maintaining a negative NAO pattern. This typically brings colder weather at this time of year, but there are uncertainties:
- How quickly will the cold air spread south?
- How cold will it be in the south and southwest?
READ MORE: Week ahead forecast: Mild in the south, colder in the north
Ensemble forecasts from the European model show a strong signal for colder conditions overall, but with a wide range of possibilities for southern areas. Some runs keep temperatures in double figures, while others drop to frost levels.
- South of England: Temperatures remain high through the next few days, then trend downward into next week. Even the mildest scenarios are cooler than current conditions.
- Northern Scotland: A strong signal for colder weather from Thursday onwards, with daytime highs in low single figures and overnight frosts.
By Monday, most simulations show a chilly start, with widespread low single figures and some spots below freezing.
Longer-term outlook
High pressure to the north looks set to dominate through much of next week, but there are less likely scenarios involving high pressure over the UK or low pressure over Scandinavia. Towards the end of the month, there is a greater chance of southwesterlies returning, bringing milder and more unsettled conditions.
For now, the key messages are:
- High confidence for a colder trend next week.
- Uncertainty over how cold it will be in the south and southwest.
- No strong signal for significant disruptive snow, though wintry showers are possible in northern and eastern areas.
Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.
