With less than two weeks to go until the start of meteorological spring, many will be wondering whether the persistent rain is finally about to shift.
The short answer is no. The outlook for the next 10 days remains largely unsettled, with a mobile Atlantic pattern continuing to drive a succession of troughs and ridges across the UK. This will bring a mix of wetter spells interspersed with some drier interludes. We have already seen a handful of dry days this week, and a few more are expected before the weekend, thanks to temporary ridges of high pressure moving through.
Turning milder into the weekend
A ridge of high pressure will bring a somewhat drier day on Thursday. While some rain, sleet and hill snow will linger across eastern areas, western parts of the UK will enjoy a noticeably drier day compared with Wednesday. It will remain chilly, and brisk winds will continue for some, particularly in the far north and northeast where rain may persist for much of the day. Into Thursday evening, conditions turn drier and largely cloudy.
By Friday, the next weather front will push in from the west, introducing a spell of heavy rain, especially across western areas. Alongside this, strong south-westerly winds will develop. Although temperatures will lift to around 10–12°C in the south, higher than we have seen recently, the strength of the wind and presence of blustery showers will limit how mild it feels. Nonetheless, Friday will mark a shift towards milder air, especially as we head into Saturday.
Saturday will be the mildest day of the period for many. Milder air will move up from the southwest, bringing with it further cloud and outbreaks of rain, mostly affecting western areas. The south and east are expected to fare best for any drier spells, although the day will not be immune from occasional drizzle. Temperatures will widely rise above average for this stage of February, reaching 12–13°C and possibly 15°C to the east of high ground. Conditions will be rather breezy, and despite the cloud, any bright intervals will feel pleasantly springlike.
READ MORE: Why has it been so wet this winter?
Cooler air returning Sunday
By Sunday, a cooler north-westerly flow will begin to develop. This will bring a return to more unsettled and cooler conditions across northern areas. Across southern parts, however, there is some uncertainty. A waving weather front may drift back into the south during the afternoon, bringing a renewed spell of rain. However, it is also possible that the front clears sufficiently to give many southern areas a predominantly dry day, particularly through the morning.
A brief drier interlude into Monday
As we head into Monday, the lingering weather front should finally clear away to the south, although the latest model output suggests it may briefly clip southern counties during the morning. Beyond that, a short‑lived ridge of high pressure looks set to develop, giving a largely drier and brighter day for much of the UK. Northern areas will remain on the cooler side, while southern parts hold on to slightly milder conditions for a time.
Renewed unsettled weather early next week
The relatively settled conditions will be short‑lived. Through the early part of next week, another Atlantic weather system will push in from the southwest. Forecast models show some uncertainty regarding the exact timing of this front, but there is reasonable confidence that cloud and rain will arrive earlier on Monday than suggested by the global model. This means rain is likely to move into the southwest and Wales during Monday afternoon, spreading further northeast into Tuesday.
South-westerly winds will continue to dominate at this stage, keeping temperatures on the milder side early next week. Western areas will once again see the heaviest and most persistent rainfall, with the south and east benefiting from the best of any drier spells.
A pattern shift later next week
A more significant change in the weather pattern looks likely later next week. High pressure will begin to build both to the south of the UK, associated with the Azores High, and across parts of the North Atlantic near the USA. At the same time, high pressure will strengthen across Eastern Europe and Scandinavia. With high pressure building to both the south and northeast of the UK, and low pressure persisting nearby, a more blocked pattern is expected to establish.
READ MORE: February’s weather extremes: a closer look at February's current weather records
This shift means that rather than weather systems arriving from the southwest, they will increasingly track in from the north or northwest. As a result, north-westerly winds are likely to develop from Thursday onwards, becoming more prominent into Friday and next weekend. This change will bring colder‑than‑average temperatures across much of the UK, with showers more widely distributed and potentially lingering for longer.
Temperatures trending downward again
Temperature trends over the next two weeks show a clear pattern. After a cold week, conditions turn milder this weekend and remain relatively mild into the early part of next week. However, both London and Glasgow indicate a distinct cooling trend towards the end of February and the start of March, with temperatures dipping below average once again. Minimum temperatures will also fall, suggesting the continued risk of frost, most likely in northern areas, but possible further south as well.
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