As we look ahead to the upcoming weekend, the UK’s weather pattern is undergoing a subtle but important shift.
After a spell dominated by cold, persistent south-easterlies and frequent outbreaks of rain across the south and northeast, winds are pivoting to a south‑westerly direction. This change will bring milder air across much of the country, although it won’t signal an end to the unsettled theme. Instead, the nature of the rain will become more intermittent, with different regions affected compared to earlier in the month.
Here’s what to expect through Saturday and Sunday, and how the broader pattern looks as we move into next week.
Changing winds bring milder but still unsettled conditions
Throughout the year so far, the UK has frequently found itself under the influence of cool south‑easterly winds, which have helped maintain a cold block to the east and allowed only limited movement from Atlantic weather systems. As that cold block gradually shifts further into Europe, it opens the door for milder, moisture‑laden Atlantic air to push in more freely.
South‑westerly winds will strengthen through the weekend, importing noticeably warmer air and lifting temperatures well above what we’ve seen recently. However, these winds will also act as a conveyor belt for new weather fronts, ensuring that rainfall remains a frequent feature—though its distribution will change. Western parts of the UK, which have been comparatively drier recently, will see more of the weekend’s rain compared with the south and northeast, which have borne the brunt of earlier wet spells.
READ MORE: Why has it been so wet this winter?
Saturday: A brief dry start before rain spreads widely
Saturday begins on a relatively quiet note for many. The morning offers a drier, calmer window, although cloud will thicken steadily, especially in the west. As the day progresses, a broad band of rain moves in from the Atlantic, turning conditions increasingly wet across western Scotland, north‑western England and Northern Ireland by the afternoon. These areas, which have not seen as much rainfall earlier in the year, are likely to experience heavy and persistent rain through the latter part of the day.
Northern Ireland in particular faces further rainfall on top of what has already fallen recently, so local surface water issues can’t be ruled out. By late afternoon and evening, the rain will extend across much of England and Wales. During daylight hours it may be more on‑and‑off in southern and central areas, but cloud will be extensive and lowering over hills, contributing to a grey, gloomy feel.
Despite the lack of sunshine, temperatures will respond significantly to the incoming warm sector. With strong, gusty south‑westerly winds drawing in mild air, daytime highs could reach 14 or 15 Celsius. If values reach or exceed 14 degrees, Saturday could become the warmest day of the year so far. This milder air sits between a warm front moving north and an approaching cold front sinking south through the evening.
Saturday night into Sunday: Heavier rain returns for the south
As Saturday night progresses, the cold front pushing southwards stalls over southern parts of the UK. It then intensifies, leading to a renewed spell of heavier and more prolonged rain late Saturday night and into early Sunday. This is not the news many in the south will welcome after a notably soggy January and February, and the wet start on Sunday could present some travel difficulties, especially in the south‑west.
Areas such as Dartmoor and Exmoor are likely to see the heaviest rain during this period, with persistent falls through the early hours. However, the good news is that the worst of the rain clears through by late morning or early afternoon for most southern counties.
READ MORE: February’s weather extremes: a closer look at February's current weather records
Sunday: Brighter spells but a return to frequent showers
Once the main band of rain moves away, Sunday transitions into a classic showery regime. South‑westerly winds remain firmly in place, driving bands of showers across Scotland, Northern Ireland, northern England and West Wales. These showers are likely to be heavy at times, moving through quickly and interspersed with brighter intervals.
Some showers may contain hail and even the odd rumble of thunder, particularly in the north and west where colder air aloft interacts with the moist south‑westerly flow. Gusty winds will accompany many of these showers, making conditions feel more changeable from hour to hour.
Temperatures will dip slightly compared to Saturday’s mild peak, but many areas away from northern Scotland will still reach double‑figure highs—still relatively mild for late February. In northern Scotland, colder air will begin to re‑establish itself, bringing a chillier feel.
Looking ahead: Staying changeable into next week
The broader pattern remains unsettled as we head into next week. Low pressure continues to dominate, with Atlantic systems sweeping through at regular intervals. Early next week, particularly Monday into Tuesday, could bring another spell of very wet weather for some areas. However, temperatures are expected to stay slightly above average overall, continuing the milder trend that begins this weekend.
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