As we move into the final weeks of summer, high pressure is once again asserting itself across the UK.
However, unlike previous spells, this system is positioned to the north of Scotland, which means it won’t be ushering in a heatwave. Instead, it’s acting like a boulder in a stream, diverting the jet stream and influencing our weather in more subtle ways.
One branch of the jet stream is being pushed north into the Arctic Circle, while another is dipping southwards, drawing in an area of low pressure. This configuration is expected to bring one or two showers to the southwest on Monday night into Tuesday. Elsewhere, the dominance of high pressure will ensure a largely dry week, though not necessarily a warm one.
Cloudy start to the week with cooler air from the east
Tuesday morning will begin with widespread cloud cover, particularly across central and eastern parts of the UK. Moisture-laden easterly and northeasterly winds from the North Sea will bring drizzle to northeast England and northeast Scotland. The low cloud will be slow to clear, lingering over eastern and northeastern areas for much of the day.
Will the sunny and warm weather prevail through the week ahead or will you need an umbrella at times?
— Met Office (@metoffice) August 17, 2025
Find out in the latest forecast 👇 pic.twitter.com/XyUSRlVeXX
Brighter spells are likely to develop through the Midlands, southern England, Wales and Northern Ireland, with the best of the sunshine expected in western and northwestern Scotland. The southwest may also see some sunshine, though showers, possibly accompanied by thunder, could affect areas such as the far west of Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly.
Temperatures will respond well to sunshine in the south and west, reaching the low to mid 20s. However, where cloud persists and the breeze comes off the North Sea, it will feel noticeably cooler, with highs in the mid to high teens.
Midweek: clearing skies but cooler conditions
As the week progresses, a cold front will move southwards, helping to push the low pressure away and allowing high pressure to build more widely from the north. This will lead to a gradual clearance of cloud and the arrival of sunnier skies, particularly across northern and eastern parts of the UK on Wednesday.
Despite the improved brightness, temperatures will remain modest due to the cooler airflow and lower humidity levels. Most areas will see highs in the high teens to low 20s.
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Thursday will begin on a cool note, especially in the northeast of Scotland, where light showers may persist. Elsewhere, dry and bright conditions will dominate. Temperatures will range from the mid-teens in the north to low 20s in southern regions.
Friday: chilly start, pleasant afternoon
High pressure will be firmly in place by Friday, with lighter winds and fewer isobars across the country. This will lead to a colder night on Thursday, with urban areas starting Friday at around 10 to 11°C, and rural spots dipping into the mid to high single figures. Sheltered areas in Highland Scotland and northern England may even see temperatures fall to the low single digits.
The day itself will be dry and pleasant, with sunny spells lifting temperatures to around 23 or 24°C in the sunniest locations.
Bank holiday weekend: settled start, uncertain finish
As we head into the bank holiday weekend, high pressure will continue to dominate, bringing settled and fine weather for Saturday and likely into Sunday. The jet stream remains diverted to the north, keeping more active weather systems at bay.
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However, weak areas of low pressure in the Atlantic may begin to encroach on western parts of the UK later in the weekend, potentially bringing showers. These systems are expected to weaken as they approach and may be absorbed by another developing low.
Watching Hurricane Erin
A key feature to watch in the coming days is Hurricane Erin, currently a category three storm. It underwent rapid intensification over the weekend and is expected to bring strong winds to the Caribbean. Fortunately, it is not forecast to make direct landfall.
Erin will transition into a mid-latitude low as it moves into the North Atlantic, where it may be picked up by the jet stream. Forecast models suggest a range of possible tracks, with most taking it towards the northwest of Scotland by next Tuesday or Wednesday. While it won’t impact the UK as a hurricane, it could introduce more unsettled conditions and increase forecast uncertainty for the final week of August.
Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.
